Sea-level rise induced change in exposure of low-lying coastal land: implications for coastal conservation strategies

Coastal erosion and flooding are projected to increase during the 21^st century due to sea-level rise (SLR). To prevent adverse impacts of unmanaged coastal development, national organizations can apply a land protection policy, which consists of acquiring coastal land to avoid further development. Yet, these reserved areas remain...

Climate change mitigation by coral reefs and seagrass beds at risk: How global change compromises coastal ecosystem services

Seagrass meadows provide valuable ecosystem services of coastal protection and chemical habitat formation that could help mitigate the impact of sea level rise and ocean acidification. However, the intensification of hydrodynamic forces caused by sea level rise, in addition to habitat degradation threaten the provision of these ecosystem...

A global synthesis of the effectiveness of sedimentation-enhancing strategies for river deltas and estuaries

Deltas worldwide are at risk of elevation loss and drowning due to relative sea-level rise. Management strategies to restore or enhance sedimentation on delta plains, Sedimentation-Enhancing Strategies (hereafter SES), are now being pursued in many deltas but there has been limited cross-disciplinary and cross-delta review. Here we compare 21...

Development of intertidal flats in the Dutch Wadden Sea in response to a rising sea level: Spatial differentiation and sensitivity to the rate of sea level rise

The Wadden Sea is a unique intertidal wetland area, forming an important hub for migratory water birds. A feared effect of accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) is the gradual loss or even disappearance of the ecologically valuable intertidal flats. To date, the effect of SLR on the time-evolution of the intertidal areas in the Dutch Wadden Sea...

Modeling the Morphodynamic Response of Estuarine Intertidal Shoals to Sea-Level Rise

Intertidal shoals are key features of estuarine environments worldwide. Climate change poses questions regarding the sustainability of intertidal areas under sea-level rise (SLR). Our work investigates the SLR impact on the long-term morphological evolution of unvegetated intertidal sandy shoals in a constrained channel-shoal system....

Flexibility for intergenerational justice in climate resilience decision-making: an application on sea-level rise in the Netherlands

To adapt to a changing climate, decision-makers design, evaluate, and implement measures that have an implication of justice on citizens in the present and well into the future. Decision-makers are often required to make decisions without certainty of the consequences and understanding their effects on intergenerational justice. Thus, managing...

Morphodynamic adaptation of a tidal basin to centennial sea-level rise: The importance of lateral expansion

Global climate changes have accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), which exacerbates the risks of coastal flooding and erosion. It is of practical interest to understand the long-term hydro-morphodynamic adaptation of coastal systems to SLR at a century time scale. In this work we use a numerical model to explore morphodynamic evolution of a...

Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment

Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support...

The potential of coastal ecosystems to mitigate the impact of sea-level rise in shallow tropical bays

Shallow tropical bays in the Caribbean, like Orient Bay and Galion Bay in Saint Martin, are often sheltered by coral reefs. In the relatively calm environment behind the reefs, seagrass meadows grow. Together, these ecosystems provide valuable ecosystem services like coastal protection, biodiversity hotspots, nursery grounds for animals and...

How natural processes contribute to flood protection: A sustainable adaptation scheme for a wide green dike

Effective adaptation to sea-level rise is critical for future flood protection. Nature-based solutions including salt marshes have been proposed to naturally enhance coastal infrastructure. A gently sloping grass-covered dike (i.e. Wide Green Dike) can be strengthened with clay accumulating locally in the salt marsh. This study explores the...

Morphodynamic Evolution of a Fringing Sandy Shoal: From Tidal Levees to Sea Level Rise

Intertidal shoals are vital components of estuaries. Tides, waves, and sediment supply shape the profile of estuarine shoals. Ensuring their sustainability requires an understanding of how such systems will react to sea level rise (SLR). In contrast to mudflats, sandy shoals have drawn limited attention in research. Inspired by a channel...

Multi-decadal shoreline change in coastal natural world heritage sites: A global assessment

Natural World Heritage Sites (NWHS), which are of Outstanding Universal Value, are increasingly threatened by natural and anthropogenic pressures. This is especially true for coastal NWHS, which are additionally subject to erosion and flooding. This paper assesses shoreline change from 1984 to 2016 within the boundaries of 67 designated sites...

Future Response of the Wadden Sea Tidal Basins to Relative Sea-Level rise—An Aggregated Modelling Approach

Climate change, and especially the associated acceleration of sea-level rise, forms a serious threat to the Wadden Sea. The Wadden Sea contains the world’s largest coherent intertidal flat area and it is known that these flats can drown when the rate of sea-level rise exceeds a critical limit. As a result, the intertidal flats would then be...

Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a...

Intertidal Area Disappears Under Sea Level Rise: 250 Years of Morphodynamic Modeling in San Pablo Bay, California

Anticipated sea level rise (SLR) threatens intertidal areas and associated ecosystems in estuaries worldwide. There is a need to develop validated modeling tools to assess the impact of SLR on estuarine morphodynamics. This study explores the morphological impact of SLR on a channel-shoal system in San Pablo Bay, a subembayment of San...

Sediment budget and morphological development of the Dutch Wadden Sea: Impact of accelerated sea-level rise and subsidence until 2100

The Wadden Sea is a unique coastal wetland containing an uninterrupted stretch of tidal flats that span a distance of nearly 500 km along the North Sea coast from the Netherlands to Denmark. The development of this system is under pressure of climate change and especially the associated acceleration in sea-level rise (SLR). Sustainable...