An adaptive approach to implementing innovative urban transport solutions

Urban transport is facing an increasing number of problems. Innovative technological solutions have been proposed for many of these problems. The implementation of these solutions, however, is surrounded by many uncertainties—for example, future relevant developments for urban transport demand and supply, the possible consequences of these...

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to the overall flood probability. This paper...

Understanding catchment behaviour through model concept improvement

This thesis describes an approach to model development based on the concept of iterative model improvement, which is a process where by trial and error different hypotheses of catchment behaviour are progressively tested, and the understanding of the system proceeds through a combined process of modelling and experimenting. We show a number of...

Reducing uncertainty in prediction of dune erosion during extreme conditions

Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of dune erosion calculations

Coastal dunes protect low lying coastal areas against the sea. Extreme waves and water levels during severe storms may cause breaching of the dunes. Consequently, serious damage due to flooding and direct wave attack could occur, resulting in loss of life and property. Proper coastal management implies that reinforcement measures will be taken...

Time-Dependent Polynomial Chaos

Markov processes for maintenance optimization of civil infrastructure in the Netherlands

The Netherlands, like many countries in this world, face a challenging task in managing civil infrastructures. The management of vital infrastructures, like road bridges, is necessary to ensure their safe and reliable functioning. The Directorate-General for Public Works and Water Management in the Netherlands manages the structures in the...

Groundwater detection monitoring system design under conditions of uncertainty

Landfills represent a wide-spread and significant threat to groundwater quality. In this thesis a methodology was developed for the design of optimal groundwater moni-toring system design at landfill sites under conditions of uncertainty. First a decision analysis approach was presented for optimal design of groundwater monitoring sys-tems under...

Probabilistic Model of Uncertainties in Two-Phase Flow Through Porous Media

We present a probabilistic model of uncertainties for the two-phase flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the model comes from an incomplete knowledge of the saturation-dependent effective mobilities of the phases, which are consequently considered as random processes. The probability laws of these processes are derived following the...

Uncertainty-based Design Optimization of Structures with Bounded-But-Unknown Uncertainties

Spatial flood extent modelling. A performance based comparison

The rapid development of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) has together with the inherent spatial nature of hydrological modelling led to an equally rapid development in the integration between GIS and hydrological models. The advantages of integration are particularly apparent in flood extent modelling. In this thesis, the integration of...

Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support

The aim of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities such as policy analysis, integrated assessment and risk assessment. It focuses on the uncertainty perceived from the point of view of those providing information to support policy decisions (i.e., the...

The factor of time in life cycle assessments of housing

Uncertainty in wind pressure coefficients for low-rise buildings

This paper reports on an analysis of the uncertainty in wind pressure (difference) coefficients, which are assessed on the basis of generic knowledge and experimental data rather than with a specific (wind tunnel) experiment. The analysis is carried out on time averaged pressure coefficients in a specific case, concerning a low-rise building in...

A general framework for compositional reasoning with uncertainty

Investigating an automated method for the sensitivity analysis of functions

Automated sensitivity analysis approaches in system dynamics focus primarily on model parameters. Although table functions are often subjectively approximated, they do not form the focus of most sensitivity analyses. Recently, a promising approach that allows automation of sensitivity analysis on functions was proposed by Hearne (2010), but the...