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Verkade, J.S. (author), Brown, J. D. (author), Davids, F. (author), Reggiani, P. (author), Weerts, A. H. (author)Two statistical post-processing approaches for estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty are compared: (i) ‘dressing’ of a deterministic forecast by adding a single, combined estimate of both hydrological and meteorological uncertainty and (ii) ‘dressing’ of an ensemble streamflow forecast by adding an estimate of hydrological...journal article 2017
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Verkade, J.S. (author)Flood early warning systems provide a potentially highly effective flood risk reduction measure. The effectiveness of early warning, however, is affected by forecasting uncertainty: the impossibility of knowing, in advance, the exact future state of hydrological systems. Early warning systems benefit from estimation of predictive uncertainties,...doctoral thesis 2015
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Lopez Lopez, P. (author), Verkade, J.S. (author), Weerts, A.H. (author), Solomatine, D.P. (author)The present study comprises an intercomparison of different configurations of a statistical post-processor that is used to estimate predictive hydrological uncertainty. It builds on earlier work by Weerts, Winsemius and Verkade (2011; hereafter referred to as WWV2011), who used the quantile regression technique to estimate predictive...journal article 2014
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Pagano, T.C. (author), Wood, A.W. (author), Ramos, M.H. (author), Cloke, H.L. (author), Pappenbreger, F. (author), Verkade, J.S. (author)Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate...journal article 2014
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- Lopez Lopez, P. (author), Verkade, J.S. (author), Weerts, A.H. (author), Solomatine, D.P. (author) journal article 2014
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De Kleermaeker, S. (author), Verkade, J.S. (author)Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers’ increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based...conference paper 2013
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Verkade, J.S. (author), Werner, M.G.F. (author)Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS). These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed events. This forecasting uncertainty decreases the potential reduction of flood risk,...journal article 2011
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Verkade, J.S. (author), Werner, M.G.F. (author)Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS). These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed floods, or surprises. This forecasting uncertainty decreases the potential reduction...journal article 2011
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Weerts, A.H. (author), Winsemius, H.C. (author), Verkade, J.S. (author)In this paper, a technique is presented for assessing the predictive uncertainty of rainfall-runoff and hydraulic forecasts. The technique conditions forecast uncertainty on the forecasted value itself, based on retrospective Quantile Regression of hindcasted water level forecasts and forecast errors. To test the robustness of the method, a...journal article 2011