Decision making under deep uncertainty for pandemic policy planning

Policymakers around the world were generally unprepared for the global COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the virus has led to millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths. Theoretically, the number of cases and deaths did not have to happen (as demonstrated by the results in a few countries). In this pandemic, as in other great disasters,...

An integrated framework for anticipating the future and dealing with uncertainty in policymaking

Policymakers need to make policies for an uncertain future, and policy analysts assist policymakers in choosing preferred courses of action. Despite a longstanding recognition that the futures field can contribute a great deal to policy analysis, futures work is not used to its full potential as an element of policy analysis. This is partly due...

Back to the future: Viewing a 1992 flood risk study through a 2017 lens

Here we examine whether a study conducted 25 years ago (1992) would have had different conclusions if concepts and analytical methods developed since then had been used. The 1992 problem was to identify a strategy for reducing flood risk in the Netherlands by, for example, strengthening the river dikes against the risk of flooding. Since then,...

Improving the link between the futures field and policymaking

Policymakers need to make policies for unknown and uncertain futures. Researchers in the futures field have a great deal to contribute to the policymaking process. But, futures research is often neglected as an element of policymaking. The aim of this paper is to improve the link between futures research and policymaking. More specifically,...

Coping with the wickedness of public policy problems: Approaches for decision-making under deep uncertainty

Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty

A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands...

Adapt or Perish: An Approach to Planning Under Deep Uncertainty

Much policy advice is formulated implicitly assuming that the future can be predicted. A static policy is developed using a single ‘most likely’ future, often based on the extrapolation of trends; or a static ‘robust’ policy is developed that will produce acceptable outcomes in a range of plausible future worlds. However, if the future turns out...

Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptiv strategies for a deeply uncertain world

Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is profoundly challenging. To deal with these uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies that can be changed over time are suggested. This paper presents a model-driven approach supporting the development of promising adaptation pathways, and illustrates the approach using...

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet...

Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...

Dynamic adaptive policy pathways : A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

Flexibility in Port Planning and Design

Recently, flexibility has received much attention from port researchers, designers, and managers. This is because the stability of the competitive environment of the past has been replaced by increasing uncertainty. The current economic crisis and the recent trends in ports and shipping sectors are causing port planners to rethink their approach...

Training and learning for crisis management using a virtual simulation/gaming environment

Recent advances in computers, networking, and telecommunications offer new opportunities for using simulation and gaming as methodological tools for improving crisis management. It has become easy to develop virtual environments to support games, to have players at distributed workstations interacting with each other, to have automated...

Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning

Airport Strategic Planning (ASP) focuses on the development of plans for the long-term development of an airport. The dominant approach for ASP is Airport Master Planning (AMP). The goal of AMP is to provide a detailed blueprint for how the airport should look in the future, and how it can get there. Since a Master Plan is a static detailed...

Assessing the Variation in Rail Interoperability in 11 European Countries, and Barriers to its Improvement

Work conducted within REORIENT, a Sixth Framework project for the European Commission (EC), is described. One objective of REORIENT was to explain the status of transformation of the European railway sector into a functionally integrated, liberalized, interoperable system. The status of interoperability within and between eleven countries in a...

Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support

The aim of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities such as policy analysis, integrated assessment and risk assessment. It focuses on the uncertainty perceived from the point of view of those providing information to support policy decisions (i.e., the...