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Kovari, A. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)
The meeting of the oldest profession with modern slavery is the topic of this paper. After a brief introduction to prostitution and prostitution-related human trafficking, this paper focuses on the Dutch policy debate. A System Dynamics simulation model related to the Dutch situation developed to explore and provide insights related to the...
conference paper 2012
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Pruyt, E. (author), Coumou, J. (author)
Lyme disease due to infection with Lyme borreliosis poses an uncertain dynamic threat to the Dutch and their public health system. This risk was used to develop and illustrate two variants of a National Risk Assessment approaches for slumbering/latent risks. This paper explains and illustrates the System Dynamics-based variant using the societal...
conference paper 2012
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De Groen, A. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Boumeester, H.J.F.M. (author)
Social rental housing ought to function as safety net for the lower income groups in the housing system. However, the Dutch housing system has a relatively large social housing stock in relation to other housing systems in Europe – larger than would be required for a safety net for lower income groups. Hence, households which are financially...
conference paper 2012
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Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
This paper presents a bright future for quantitative System Dynamics Modeling. This future relates to all major issues and grand challenges which all happen to be dynamically complex and deeply uncertain. Combining System Dynamics Modeling and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis allows one to generate, explore and deeply analyze tens of thousands...
conference paper 2012
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Hamarat, C. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)
Uncertainty manifests itself in almost every aspect of decision making. Adaptive and flexible policy design becomes crucial under uncertainty. An adaptive policy is designed to be flexible and can be adapted over time to changing circumstances and unforeseeable surprises. A crucial part of an adaptive policy is the monitoring system and...
conference paper 2012
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Mohammed, I.S. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)
The paper explores the relevance and use of games for speeding up the energy transition in the Dutch built environment. Since the transition of the Dutch energy system with the current policies is much slower than required given the urgency of the foreseeable problems and the substantive system delays. There seems to be a need for...
conference paper 2012
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Pruyt, E. (author), Segers, J. (author), Oruc, S. (author)
In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity (especially in terms of highly qualified human...
conference paper 2011
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Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Radicalization and deradicalization are deeply uncertain dynamic processes. Exploring and analyzing many plausible futures and assessing the robustness of policies to reinforce desirable evolutions seem more useful for such processes than trying to predict their precise development over time and optimize the associated policy response. This...
conference paper 2011
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Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J. (author), Yucel, G. (author), Hamarat, C. (author)
This paper illustrates the use of Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis – a multi-method combining System Dynamics and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis to explore and analyze uncertain dynamic issues and test deep policy robustness. This paper gives an overview of the current state of this multi-method by means of an illustration....
conference paper 2011
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Yucel, G. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)
The residential sector accounts for 30% of the total energy consumed by all sectors on average worldwide. This significant share makes an energy transition in the residential sector one of the most important frontiers of sustainability transitions. Netherlands aims to achieve a remarkable reduction in the energy consumption in residential...
conference paper 2011
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Pruyt, E. (author), Logtens, T. (author), Gijsbers, G. (author)
Plausible dynamics of a major demographic shift –(societal) aging– is studied in this paper, both from a global perspective and from a national perspective. Several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as scenario generators for Exploratory System...
conference paper 2011
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Pruyt, E. (author)
Enormous future investments are needed to replace old energy systems/technologies, and prepare them for future needs. Moreover, smarter technologies/systems are needed. And in this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, smarter policymaking in the energy field is certainly needed too. After all, current energy policymaking still...
conference paper 2011
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Pruyt, E. (author)
This follow-up paper presents seven actual cases for testing and teaching System Dynamics developed and used between January 2010 and January 2011 for one of the largest System Dynamics courses (250+ students per year) at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. The cases presented in this paper range from short to long and can be used...
conference paper 2011
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Hamarat, C. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)
Although there is a trend towards more sustainable energy system, the future of renewable energies is still deeply uncertain. Among the renewable resources, wind energy is considered to be a promising one. However, in the presence of deep uncertainty, what will be the future of wind-powered energy? Decision making under deep uncertainty for such...
conference paper 2011
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Mohammed, I.S. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)
This paper presents a conceptual framework for designing games for different purposes and goals. The paper provides a summary of basic requirements for designing interactive games to suit specific purposes. To achieve this aim, a typology of seven general purposes of serious games are provided. The purposes are further illustrated using specific...
conference paper 2011
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Meyers, W.K. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Yucel, G. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)
There is little consensus on the skills set required of a system dynamics practitioner. In this paper we use the teaching approach and learning goals of the system dynamics courses at the Delft University of Technology as a starting point to explore the development of system dynamics modeling skills. System dynamics is embedded in the curriculum...
conference paper 2010
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Pruyt, E. (author)
The main goal of this paper is to explain and illustrate different exploratory uses of small System Dynamics models for analysis and decision support in case of dynamically complex issues that are deeply uncertain. The applied focuss of the paper is the field of inter/national safety and security. The need for exploratory approaches is first of...
conference paper 2010
document
Pruyt, E. (author)
This follow-up paper presents several actual cases for testing and teaching System Dynamics. The cases were developed between April 2009 and January 2010 for the Introductory System Dynamics courses at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. They can be used for teaching and testing introductory System Dynamics courses at university...
conference paper 2010
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Pruyt, E. (author)
Possible short, medium and/or long term scarcity of minerals/metals may actually pose a threat to modern societies. Its potentially disruptive societal consequences qualify this issue for exploration from a world/regional security point of view. Hence, exploratory System Dynamics modelling and simulation is used in this paper to explore the...
conference paper 2010
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Pruyt, E. (author), Hamarat, C. (author)
This paper presents a small exploratory System Dynamics model related to the dynamics of the 2009 flu pandemic, also known as the Mexican flu, swine flu, or A(H1N1)v. The model was developed in May 2009 in order to quickly foster understanding about the possible dynamics of this new flu variant and to perform rough-cut policy explorations. Later...
conference paper 2010
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