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Exbrayat, J. F. (author), Breuer, L. (author), Viney, N. R. (author), Seibert, J. (author), Wrede, S. (author), Frede, H. G. (author)Model predictions of biogeochemical fluxes on the landscape scale are highly uncertain, both with respect to stochastic (parameter) and structural uncertainty. The idea of our ensemble modelling approach is to reduce the predictive uncertainty by covering part of the parameter and model structural uncertainty. In this study 4 different models...conference paper 2009
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Brenner, T. (author), Werker, C. (author)When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on socalled abductive simulation models, which help to better understand how policy measures can...journal article 2009
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Ruijven, B. (author), Van der Sluijs, J.P. (author), Van Vuuren, D.P. (author), Janssen, P. (author), Heuberger, P.S.C. (author), De Vries, B. (author)Uncertainties in energy demand modelling originate from both limited understanding of the real-world system and a lack of data for model development, calibration and validation. These uncertainties allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. Here, an automated model calibration...journal article 2009
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Kroon-van Loon, P.S. (author)About 30% of the increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are related to land use changes and agricultural activities. In order to select effective measures, knowledge is required about GHG emissions from these ecosystems and how these emissions are influenced by management and...doctoral thesis 2010
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Jacobs, J.F. (author), Van de Poel, I. (author), Osseweijer, P. (author)The risks of novel technologies, such as nano(bio)technology cannot be fully assessed due to the existing uncertainties surrounding their introduction into society. Consequently, the introduction of innovative technologies can be conceptualised as a societal experiment, which is a helpful approach to evaluate moral acceptability. This approach...journal article 2010
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Raso, L. (author)Water systems consist of natural and man-made objects serving multiple essential purposes. They are affected by many types of meteorological disturbances. In order to deal with these disturbances and to serve the desired objectives, infrastructures have been built and managed by societies for specific purposes. Given a water system, and its...doctoral thesis 2013
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Biljecki, F. (author), Ledoux, H. (author), Stoter, J. (author)This paper describes the analysis of the propagation of positional uncertainty in 3D city models to the uncertainty in the computation of their volumes. Current work related to error propagation in GIS is limited to 2D data and 2D GIS operations, especially of rasters. In this research we have (1) developed two engines, one that generates random...conference paper 2014
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- Onencan, A.M. (author), Enserink, B. (author), Kortmann, Rens (author), Thissen, W.A.H. (author) abstract 2015
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Greeven, Sebastiaan (author), Kraan, O.D.E. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two...journal article 2016
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Perko, Z. (author), van der Voort, S.R. (author), Van De Water, Steven (author), Hartman, C.M.H. (author), Hoogeman, M.S. (author), Lathouwers, D. (author)The highly conformal planned dose distribution achievable in intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) can severely be compromised by uncertainties in patient setup and proton range. While several robust optimization approaches have been presented to address this issue, appropriate methods to accurately estimate the robustness of treatment...journal article 2016
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Philipsen, R.M. (author), de Weerdt, M.M. (author), De Vries, Laurens (author)Large controllable loads, such as electric vehicles, are increasingly penetrating electricity distribution feeders. To avoid local congestion, their consumption behaviour must be steered, for which a real-time price propagated down from the transmission system does not suffice, as it does not reflect local grid conditions. To efficiently steer...conference paper 2016
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Wijnia, Y.C. (author)In the liberalized energy market Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) are confronted with income reductions by the regulator. The common response to this challenge is the implementation of asset management, which can be regarded as systematically applying Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) to the risks in the networks. In short, this is Risk Based...doctoral thesis 2016
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van Essen, G. M. (author), Kahrobaei, S.S. (author), van Oeveren, H. (author), van den Hof, P.M.J. (author), Jansen, J.D. (author)We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed...journal article 2016
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van Maren, D.S. (author), Cronin, Katherine (author)Estuarine suspended sediment transport models are typically calibrated against suspended sediment concentration data. These data typically cover a limited range of the actual suspended sediment concentration dynamics, constrained in either time or space. As a result of these data limitations, the available data can be reproduced with complex...journal article 2016
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Schwarting, Wilko (author), Alonso-Mora, J. (author), Pauli, Liam (author), Karaman, Sertac (author), Rus, Daniela (author)Current state-of-the-art vehicle safety systems, such as assistive braking or automatic lane following, are still only able to help in relatively simple driving situations. We introduce a Parallel Autonomy shared-control framework that produces safe trajectories based on human inputs even in much more complex driving scenarios, such as those...conference paper 2017
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Robaey, Z.H. (author), Spruit, S. (author), van de Poel, I.R. (author)The Safe-by-Design approach in synthetic biology holds the promise of designing the building blocks of life in an organism guided by the value of safety. This paves a new way for using biotechnologies safely. However, the Safe-by-Design approach moves the bulk of the responsibility for safety to the actors in the research and development...journal article 2017
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Blom, H.A.P. (author), Bakker, GJ (author)Effective collaboration between planning controller, tactical controller and pilots in handling various uncertainties and hazards is the result of decades of evolutionary development. The forthcoming paradigm shift to Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) requires a similarly effective collaboration between the TBO layer and a tactical layer....conference paper 2017
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van de Poel, I.R. (author), Robaey, Z.H. (author)Safe-by-design (SbD) aims at addressing safety issues already during the R&D and design phases of new technologies. SbD has increasingly become popular in the last few years for addressing the risks of emerging technologies like nanotechnology and synthetic biology. We ask to what extent SbD approaches can deal with uncertainty, in...journal article 2017
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Roeser, S. (author)Climate change is a pressing phenomenon with huge potential ethical, legal and social policy implications. Climate change gives rise to intricate moral and policy issues as it involves contested science, uncertainty and risk. In order to come to scientifically and morally justified, as well as feasible, policies, targeting climate change...journal article 2017
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Kolekar, S.B. (author), de Winter, J.C.F. (author), Abbink, D.A. (author)The interaction between a human driver and an automated driving system may improve when the automation is designed in such a way that it behaves in a human-like manner. This paper introduces a human-like steering model, in which the driver adapts to the risk due to uncertainty in the environment. Current steering models take a risk-neutral...conference paper 2017