Runoff Modeling in Drainage Networks Using Probabilistic Graphs

Conventional hydrological models use a deterministic approach. One could think of it like a black box, having an input, parameters, relations and an output. The parameters are calibrated by comparing the model output with observations of the system response (for example river runoff). When assessing the uncertainty in models the focus is often...

On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling: Understanding models

Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling, the focus is shifting from performance to...

Low-cost Space-borne Data for Inundation Modelling: Topography, Flood Extent and Water Level

Floods are among the most damaging natural hazards and their impacts have been dramatically increasing worldwide over the past decades. As most basins of the world are ungauged or poorly gauged and some measurement networks are continuously under decline, the spatial distribution of flood hazard is often difficult to estimate because the input...

Feedback versus uncertainty

Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of information about the input, discretization of...

Quantile hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment: 2. Applications

Quantile hydrologic model selection and structure deficiency assessment is applied in three case studies. The performance of quantile model selection problem is rigorously evaluated using a model structure on the French Broad river basin data set. The case study shows that quantile model selection encompasses model selection strategies based on...

Quantile hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment: 1. Theory

A theory for quantile based hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment is presented. The paper demonstrates that the degree to which a model selection problem is constrained by the model structure (measured by the Lagrange multipliers of the constraints) quantifies structural deficiency. This leads to a formal...

“SimDelta”: Inquiry into an internet-based interactive model for water infrastructure development in The Netherlands

The Dutch Delta Program is currently developing new government policies for flood protection and fresh water supply. Decision support instruments have to address the program’s technical and political complexity. The water system functions are highly interwoven and would benefit from an integrated approach on a national level, with decisions...

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to the overall flood probability. This paper...