Probabilistic Analysis of Failures Mechanisms of Large Dams

Risk and reliability analysis is presently being performed in almost all fields of engineering depending upon the specific field and its particular area. Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), also called quantitative risk analysis (QRA) is a central feature of hydraulic engineering structural design. Actually, probabilistic methods, which consider...

Quantitative risk analysis of urban flooding in lowland areas

Urban flood risk analyses suffer from a lack of quantitative historical data on flooding incidents. Data collection takes place on an ad hoc basis and is usually restricted to severe events. The resulting data deficiency renders quantitative assessment of urban flood risks uncertain. The study reported in this thesis reviews existing approaches...

Development and prototype application of an oil spill risk analysis in a coastal zone

This paper introduces the development of a methodology for performance of oil spill risk analysis in coastal zones through a prototype application. The main objective of the research effort is to develop the basis for a tool that can assess risks due to the occurrence of an oil spill event aiming at assisting to the risk response process. The...

The Causes and Mechanisms of Historical Dike Failures in the Netherlands

In a historical perspective, flood protection in the past was not given high priority - plague and periods of famine and war took precedence. Poverty and a lack of knowledge made it difficult to create safer dikes. Dike engineering did improve in Napoleonic era due to the French Central Government, but many dikes still failed. A historical...

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to the overall flood probability. This paper...

Microbial risk assessment for urban pluvial flooding

Public health risks of urban pluvial flooding have so far received little attention in technical discussions. In this paper, the results of pathogen measurements in the sewer system of Utrecht and an urban flooding experiment are presented and used in an application of Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, an existing risk analysis method for...

Physical safety in multiple use of space

As a consequence of an ever-growing population land is getting scarcer, especially in urban areas. In the last decade, the space available above transport infrastructure - such as roads and railway tracks - and existing buildings is being exploited more and more frequently in city centres. The safety issue in such projects should be considered...

Risk based design of civil structures

The Art and Science of Model Building: A Bayesian Approach, by Prof. A. Der Kiureghian; The talk will describe a Bayesian approach to developing models, with special emphasis on limit-state models for reinforced concrete structures. The formulation can incorporate all kinds of information (theoretical models, laboratory experiments, field...

Vergelijking van afslagrisico's kustzone met risico's elders in Nederland

Om een beeld te krijgen van de relatieve omvang van het risico verbonden met afslag aan de kust heeft RIKZ het initiatief genomen voor het laten uitvoeren van een onderzoek gericht op een vergelijking van de risico’s in de afslagzone met watergebonden risico’s elders in Nederland. Met watergebonden risico’s worden de risico’s bij overstroming...

Waterbouwkundige kunstwerken - eilanden in de IJszee

Overzicht van kunstmatige eilanden t.b.v. de oliewinning in arctische gebieden (rond de Noordpool, Beaufort Sea). Includes a risk analysis for such an island

Dicea Risk analysis in the design of coastal structures

Basic lecture on risk analysis for the design of coastal structures.

What is acceptable risk?

The acceptable failure probability of technical structures and systems is studied in this paper. The problem is approached from two points of view : the personal and the societal point of view. The different view points of acceptable risk lead to different criteria, although the basis of both is a cost/benefit analysis. Two trains of thought,...