Is real options analysis fit for purpose in supporting climate adaptation planning and decision-making?

Even though real options analysis (ROA) is often thought as the best tool available for evaluating flexible strategies, there are profound problems with the assumptions underpinning ROA rendering it unsuitable for use in supporting planning and decision-making on climate adaptation. In the face of dynamic and deep uncertainty about the future...

Modeling with stakeholders for transformative change

Coherent responses to important problems such as climate change require involving a multitude of stakeholders in a transformative process leading to development of policy pathways. The process of coming to an agreement on policy pathways requires critical reflection on underlying system conceptualizations and commitment to building capacity...

Tree-based ensemble methods for sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A performance comparison with Sobol and Morris techniques

Complex environmental models typically require global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to account for non-linearities and parametric interactions. However, variance-based GSA is highly computationally expensive. While different screening methods can estimate GSA results, these techniques typically impose restrictions on sampling methods and input...

Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways

Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various levels. This raises questions about who should...

Does learning to reflect make better modelers?

In this paper we address the role of reflective skills in the development and training of new System Dynamics modelers at the tertiary education level. Over the last two years students at the Delft University of Technology have written a reflective essay on their experiences with the conceptualization, formulation, validation and use of a System...