Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement

This study focuses on measuring the influence of critical Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) on human error occurrence in structural design and construction tasks within the context of the Dutch construction industry. The primary research question addressed in this paper concerns the extent of HOFs’ contribution to human error occurrence...

Quantifying risks to security of supply for 100% hydrogen in built-environment using Structured Expert Judgement

In this thesis, we explore a proposal from Stedin that advocates heating the city of Stad aan `t Haringvliet with hydrogen rather than natural gas. Switching from natural gas to hydrogen presents plenty of unknown factors which must be properly evaluated for an accurate and realistic risk picture, including the danger of running out of hydrogen....

Dutch electricity spot price forecasting: Two study cases using structured expert judgement

Electricity is a quite unique commodity. Due to the economically non-storable nature of the commodity that electricity is, the constant balance between consumption and production, weather effects, such as temperature, wind speed, solar intensity etc, and the intensity of everyday and business activities, e.g. holi- days, weekends, on- and off...

Is every expert equal?: An analysis of the differences in performance in structured expert judgement

In this thesis the differences in performance scores of experts in the Classical Model for structured expert judgement are analyzed. The underlying assumption in the Classical Model is that variance in performances of experts in a panel is at least partly resultant of the expert's ability to quantify uncertainty. This assumption is tested...

Decision-Making in Early Internationalization: A Structured Expert Judgement Approach

The aim of this chapter is to show how a structured approach to elicit expert judgement (SEJ) can guide the practice of early internationalization. We applied SEJ to forecast some critical issues upon which an innovative start-up wished to base their decision of whether to expand their initial operations in Poland and Czech Republic to Brazil...

Structured expert judgment to understand the intrinsic vulnerability of traffic networks

The concept of intrinsic vulnerability of a traffic network is defined for the first time in this paper. Intrinsic vulnerability is the susceptibility to incidents characterised by a probability of occurrence in space and time of difficult estimation, which can result in considerable reduction or loss of the system functionality. Given the...

Calibrating experts’ probabilistic assessments for improved probabilistic predictions

Expert judgement is routinely required to inform critically important decisions. While expert judgement can be remarkably useful when data are absent, it can be easily influenced by contextual biases which can lead to poor judgements and subsequently poor decisions. Structured elicitation protocols aim to: (1) guard against biases and provide...

Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A risk-based methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels

This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding...