An exploration of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with BasGoed

This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. The strategic freight transport model Basgoed was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the basic needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport...

Is there room for another hedonic model?: The advantages of the GAMLSS approach in real estate

Hedonic modelling is essential for institutional investors, researchers and urban policymakers in order to identify the factors affecting the value and future development of rents over time and space. While statistical models in this field have advanced substantially over the last decades, new statistical approaches have emerged expanding the...

Dynamic Airline Booking Forecasting

This paper proposes a model for dynamic booking forecasting using a time-inhomogeneous Markov process. The transition probabilities are estimated based on a combination of an empirical and a parametric distribution. This model is applied for flight booking forecasting, where flight forecasts are updated on a daily basis over a time horizon of up...

Volatility in Electrical Load Forecasting for Long-term Horizon: An ARIMA-GARCH Approach

Electrical load forecasting in long-term horizon of power systems plays an important role for system planning and development. Load forecast in long-term horizon is represented as time-series. Thus, it is important to check the effect of volatility in the forecasted load time-series. In short, volatility in long-term horizon affects four main...

Neural Network-based Load Forecasting and Error Implication for Short-term Horizon

Load forecasting is considered vital along with many other important entities required for assessing the reliability of power system. Thus, the primary concern is not to forecast load with a novel model, rather to forecast load with the highest accuracy. Short-term load forecast accuracy is often hindered due to various load impacting factors....

Integration of renewable energy sources into the energy supply flows of greenhouses: Development and validation of a forecasting model

Reference scheme for deriving aspects and criteria for forecasting functional performance and cost implications of cyber-physical products

A decision support system for use of probability forecasts

Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts, which are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasters to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties. Associated benefits include the decision makers’ increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based...

A review of agent-based models for forecasting the deployment of distributed generation in energy systems

Agent-based models are seeing increasing use in the study of distributed generation (DG) deployment. Researchers and decision makers involved in the implementation of DG have been lacking a concise overview of why they should consider using agent-based modeling (ABM) for forecasting purposes. Since this particular field of inquiry has only...

Real estate development for a chaning user market

The recent collapse of the non-residential real estate development & construction market rises the question, what the future demand will be for real estate space and how these will influence future development activities. The aim of this research is to provide a framework for stock-flow analysis and forecasting of real estate development (macro,...

A Very Long Term Forecast for the development of the Cargo Flows in the le-Havre – Hamburg range

The development of the Dutch ports and waterways has historically gone hand in hand since the waterways have always provided a primary access route to the Hinterland. Any vision on the development of the Dutch waterway system will therefore require a vision on the developments of the ports in the region and vice versa. The Dutch waterway system...

Metocean forecasting for ports and terminals

Industry standard numerical models are excellent and accurate tools for analysis of port plans and design. They link meteorological and oceanographic information to impacts on moored vessels and thereby provide the metocean conditions along the berths. By use of relevant motion and safety criteria for moored vessels, numerical modelling studies...

Performance of a spectral wind-wave model in shallow water

Application of a parametric long term model concept to the Delray beach nourishment program