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Eker, S. (author), Slinger, J.H. (author), Yucel, G. (author)Automated sensitivity analysis approaches in system dynamics focus primarily on model parameters. Although table functions are often subjectively approximated, they do not form the focus of most sensitivity analyses. Recently, a promising approach that allows automation of sensitivity analysis on functions was proposed by Hearne (2010), but the...conference paper
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Walker, W.E. (author), Harremoës, P. (author), Rotmans, J. (author), Van der Sluijs, J.P. (author), Van Asselt, M.B.A. (author), Janssen, P. (author), Krayer von Krauss, M.P. (author)The aim of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support activities such as policy analysis, integrated assessment and risk assessment. It focuses on the uncertainty perceived from the point of view of those providing information to support policy decisions (i.e., the...journal article 2003
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Werner, M.G.F. (author)The rapid development of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) has together with the inherent spatial nature of hydrological modelling led to an equally rapid development in the integration between GIS and hydrological models. The advantages of integration are particularly apparent in flood extent modelling. In this thesis, the integration of...doctoral thesis 2004
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Fenicia, F. (author)This thesis describes an approach to model development based on the concept of iterative model improvement, which is a process where by trial and error different hypotheses of catchment behaviour are progressively tested, and the understanding of the system proceeds through a combined process of modelling and experimenting. We show a number of...doctoral thesis 2008
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Bouarfa, L. (author), Jonker, P.P. (author), Dankelman, J. (author)Recognizing and understanding surgical high-level tasks from sensor readings is important for surgical workflow analysis. Surgical high-level task recognition is also a challenging task in ubiquitous computing because of the inherent uncertainty of sensor data and the complexity of the operating room environment. In this paper, we present a...journal article 2010
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Ligtvoet, A. (author)Future price developments and availability of energy resources are uncertain. Therefore, developers of energy infrastructures will have to consider different scenarios in their planning. Moreover, the implementation of large infrastructures requires the cooperation of several actors, which adds to the uncertainty. In this paper we describe the...conference paper 2010
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author)The treatment of uncertainty in the long-term planning of infrastructures in general and of mainports such as airports and seaports is a key challenge for decisionmakers. Moreover, these uncertainties have increased over the last decades due to changes in owner structure, changes in rules and regulations, and the ever increasing connectedness of...doctoral thesis 2010
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, J.S. (author)In the Nature article ‘A safe operating space for humanity’, Rockström et al. (2009) introduce the concept of a safe operating space for humanity. A safe operating space is the space for human activities that will not push the planet out of the ‘Holocene state’ that has seen human civilizations arise, develop, and thrive. Rockström et al. have...conference paper 2012
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)The natural gas production in the Netherlands is estimated to decline significantly in the coming 25 years. This situation has led producers to consider alternatives such as unconventional gas resources which are successfully utilized in the US and debated all over the world. However, despite the substantial initial resource estimates,...conference paper 2012
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author)Sustainable water management in a changing environment full of uncertainty is a profound challenge. To deal with uncertainties, dynamic adaptive policies can be used. Such policies can change over time in response to how the future unfolds, to what we learn about the system, to changes in environment, and to changes in societal preferences. This...conference paper 2012
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)Unconventional gas has raised debates all over the world following its considerable contribution to the natural gas production of some countries such as the US. The Netherlands, which is a prominent gas producer in the Western Europe, also considers unconventional resources as an alternative to conventional production, which is estimated to...conference paper 2012
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Bornaee, A.A. (author)New developments in the gas market urge public and private concerns to gain deeper insight into how this market is functioning. The Energy Research Center of the Netherlands (ECN), as a leading research institute, has developed a deterministic model representing the European gas market called GASTALE. Based on this model, this research has been...master thesis 2012
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Qiu, L. (author)As a useful tool in understanding the coastal behaviours, one-line models , which are designed to simulate the long-term shoreline evolution in response to imposed wave conditions, coastal structures, and other engineering activities such as beach nourishment, have been developed and applied to a wide range of projects in coastal engineering and...master thesis 2013
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Eker, S. (author), Van Daalen, C. (author)Import dependency and the extent of renewable gas production are two outcomes of interest concerning the future of gas supply in the Netherlands. Due to the complexity of internal mechanisms and uncertainties associated with the natural gas production, the production of renewable gases, and the demand for gas, the future of these two outcomes of...conference paper 2013
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K?vári, A. (author)This project’s commissioner, the head of ING’s emerging markets credit trading desk developed a loan structure called Revenue Participation Loan to fit the needs of SMEs in emerging markets. He now wants to combine this new product with innovation in his approach to uncertainty. With these types of loans SMEs agree to pay a fixed percentage of...master thesis 2013
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Pande, S. (author)A theory for quantile based hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment is presented. The paper demonstrates that the degree to which a model selection problem is constrained by the model structure (measured by the Lagrange multipliers of the constraints) quantifies structural deficiency. This leads to a formal...journal article 2013
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Pande, S. (author)Quantile hydrologic model selection and structure deficiency assessment is applied in three case studies. The performance of quantile model selection problem is rigorously evaluated using a model structure on the French Broad river basin data set. The case study shows that quantile model selection encompasses model selection strategies based on...journal article 2013
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Vasilopoulos, C. (author)Years of turmoil in the banking sector have revealed the need to assess the performance of banks and explore the resilience of the banking system under adverse futures. Banks are not the safe houses everyone believed them to be, as the recent crisis of 2007 showed. Today, banks are highly uncertain dynamically complex systems that are...master thesis 2013
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Van Nooyen, R.R.P. (author), Hrachowitz, M. (author), Kolechkina, A.G. (author)Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of information about the input, discretization of...conference paper 2014
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Eker, S. (author), Djong, J. (author), Leston, D. (author)Rabies is a viral fatal disease transmitted to humans mainly from dogs. Human deaths due to rabies have been increasing in recent years, especially in Africa and Asia where socioeconomic factors play an important role in the revival of the epidemic. In the current situation, it is unknown how the epidemic will evolve and which policies can...conference paper 2014