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Addressing the inconsistent electric fields of tDCS by using patient-tailored configurations in chronic stroke: Implications for treatment

van der Cruijsen, J. (author), Dooren, R.F. (author), Schouten, A.C. (author), Oostendorp, Thom F. (author), Frens, Maarten A. (author), Ribbers, G.M. (author), van der Helm, F.C.T. (author), Kwakkel, Gert (author), Selles, R.W. (author)

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a promising tool to improve and speed up motor rehabilitation after stroke, but inconsistent clinical effects refrain tDCS from clinical implementation. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the need for individualized tDCS configurations in stroke, considering interindividual variability in...

journal article 2022

document

Dealing With Uncertainty in Early Health Technology Assessment: An Exploration of Methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Scholte, Mirre (author), Marchau, V.A.W.J. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Klijn, Catharina J.M. (author), Rovers, Maroeska M. (author), Grutters, Janneke P.C. (author)

Objectives: In early stages, the consequences of innovations are often unknown or deeply uncertain, which complicates early health economic modeling (EHEM). The field of decision making under deep uncertainty uses exploratory modeling (EM) in situations when the system model, input probabilities/distributions, and consequences are unknown or...

journal article 2022

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Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda

Moallemi, Enayat A. (author), Eker, Sibel (author), Gao, Lei (author), Hadjikakou, Michalis (author), Liu, Qi (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Reed, Patrick M. (author), Obersteiner, Michael (author), Guo, Zhaoxia (author), Bryan, Brett A. (author)

Progress to date toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, thus limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake...

journal article 2022

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Enabling assessment of distributive justice through models for climate change planning: A review of recent advances and a research agenda

Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Taebi, B. (author)

Models for supporting climate adaptation and mitigation planning, mostly in the form of Integrated Assessment Models, are poorly equipped for aiding questions related to fairness of adaptation and mitigation strategies, because they often disregard distributional outcomes. When evaluating policies using such models, the costs and benefits are...

review 2021

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A novel concurrent approach for multiclass scenario discovery using Multivariate Regression Trees: Exploring spatial inequality patterns in the Vietnam Mekong Delta under uncertainty

Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

To support equitable planning, model-based analyses can be used to explore inequality patterns arising from different scenarios. Scenario discovery is increasingly used to extract insights from ensembles of simulation. Here, we apply two scenario discovery approaches for unraveling inequality patterns and their drivers, with an application to...

journal article 2021

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Participatory multi-modelling as the creation of a boundary object ecology: the case of future energy infrastructures in the Rotterdam Port Industrial Cluster

Cuppen, E.H.W.J. (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Quist, J.N. (author)

Finding leverage points for sustainability transformation of industrial and infrastructure systems is challenging, given that transformation is emergent from the complex interactions among socio-technical system elements over time within a specific social, technical and geographical context. Participatory multi-modelling, in which modellers...

journal article 2020

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Principles, challenges and guidelines for a multi-model ecology

Nikolic, I. (author), Warnier, Martijn (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Lukszo, Z. (author), Brazier, F.M. (author), Verbraeck, A. (author), Cvetkovic, M. (author), Palensky, P. (author)

report 2019

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Guide for Good Modelling Practice in policy support

Nikolic, I. (author), Lukszo, Z. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Warnier, Martijn (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Bots, P.W.G. (author), Brazier, F.M. (author)

report 2019

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Modeling with stakeholders for transformative change

van Bruggen, Anne (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

Coherent responses to important problems such as climate change require involving a multitude of stakeholders in a transformative process leading to development of policy pathways. The process of coming to an agreement on policy pathways requires critical reflection on underlying system conceptualizations and commitment to building capacity...

journal article 2019

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A coupled simulation architecture for agent-based/geohydrological modelling with NetLogo and MODFLOW

Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Bloemendal, Martin (author)

The modelling of social-ecological systems can provide useful insights into the interaction of social and environmental processes. However, quantitative social-ecological models should acknowledge the complexity and uncertainty of both underlying subsystems. For example, the agent-based models which are increasingly popular for groundwater...

journal article 2019

document

Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) smart grids: Large-scale seasonal energy storage as a distributed energy management solution

Rostampour, Vahab (author), Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Bloemendal, Martin (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Keviczky, T. (author)

Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) is a building technology used to seasonally store thermal energy in the subsurface, which can reduce the energy use of larger buildings by more than half. The spatial layout of ATES systems is a key aspect for the technology, as thermal interactions between neighboring systems can degrade system performance....

journal article 2019

document

Evaluation of flood risk reduction strategies through combinations of interventions

van Berchum, E.C. (author), Mobley, William (author), Jonkman, Sebastiaan N. (author), Timmermans, Jos (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Brody, Samuel D. (author)

Large, complex coastal regions often require a combination of interventions to lower the risk of flooding to an acceptable level. In practice, a limited number of strategies are considered and interdependencies between interventions are often simplified. This paper presents the Multiple Lines of Defence Optimization System (MODOS)‐model. This...

journal article 2018

document

Pynetlogo: Linking netlogo with python

Jaxa-Rozen, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

Methods for testing and analyzing agent-based models have drawn increasing attention in the literature, in the context of efforts to establish standard frameworks for the development and documentation of models. This process can benefit from the use of established software environments for data analysis and visualization. For instance, the...

journal article 2018

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The Exploratory Modeling Workbench: An open source toolkit for exploratory modeling, scenario discovery, and (multi-objective) robust decision making

Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

There is a growing interest in model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, reflected in a variety of approaches being put forward in the literature. A key idea shared among these is the use of models for exploratory rather than predictive purposes. Exploratory modeling aims at exploring the implications for decision making of the...

journal article 2017

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The geopolitical impact of the shale revolution: Exploring consequences on energy prices and rentier states

Auping, Willem L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), de Jong, Sijbren (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

While the shale revolution was largely a US’ affair, it affects the global energy system. In this paper, we look at the effects of this spectacular increase in natural gas, and oil, extraction capacity can have on the mix of primary energy sources, on energy prices, and through that on internal political stability of rentier states. We use...

journal article 2016

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Improving scenario discovery by bagging random boxes

Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Cunningham, S. (author)

Scenario discovery is a model-based approach to scenario development under deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery relies on the use of statistical machine learning algorithms. The most frequently used algorithm is the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). This algorithm identifies regions in an uncertain model input space that are highly...

journal article 2016

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The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society: An agent-based scenario discovery study

Greeven, Sebastiaan (author), Kraan, O.D.E. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two...

journal article 2016

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Prospects of modelling societal transitions: Position paper of an emerging community

Holtz, G. (author), Alkemade, F. (author), De Haan, F. (author), Köhler, J. (author), Trutnevyte, E. (author), Luthe, T. (author), Halbe, J. (author), Papachristos, G. (author), Chappin, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Ruutu, S. (author)

Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper...

journal article 2015

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Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty

Walker, W.E. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...

journal article 2013

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How to Explore and Manage the Future? Formal Model Analysis for Complex Issues under Deep Uncertainty

Keijser, B.M.J. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Pruyt, E. (author)

Formal Model Analysis (FMA) covers a group of methods and techniques to study structurebehaviour relations in best-estimate models. That is, FMA aims to identify the structural causes for the particular dynamics of a single best-estimate model. Under deep uncertainty, the notion of a best-estimate model is however troublesome. Then Exploratory...

conference paper 2012