Sticky PDMP samplers for sparse and local inference problems

We construct a new class of efficient Monte Carlo methods based on continuous-time piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) suitable for inference in high dimensional sparse models, i.e. models for which there is prior knowledge that many coordinates are likely to be exactly 0. This is achieved with the fairly simple idea of endowing...

Conditioning continuous-time Markov processes by guiding

A continuous-time Markov process X can be conditioned to be in a given state at a fixed time T>0 using Doob's h-transform. This transform requires the typically intractable transition density of X. The effect of the h-transform can be described as introducing a guiding force on the process. Replacing this force with an approximation...

A piecewise deterministic Monte Carlo method for diffusion bridges

We introduce the use of the Zig-Zag sampler to the problem of sampling conditional diffusion processes (diffusion bridges). The Zig-Zag sampler is a rejection-free sampling scheme based on a non-reversible continuous piecewise deterministic Markov process. Similar to the Lévy–Ciesielski construction of a Brownian motion, we expand the...

Decompounding discrete distributions: A nonparametric Bayesian approach

Suppose that a compound Poisson process is observed discretely in time and assume that its jump distribution is supported on the set of natural numbers. In this paper we propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the intensity of the underlying Poisson process and the distribution of the jumps. We provide a Markov chain Monte Carlo...

Guided proposals for simulating multi-dimensional diffusion bridges

A Monte Carlo method for simulating a multi-dimensional diffusion process conditioned on hitting a fixed point at a fixed future time is developed. Proposals for such diffusion bridges are obtained by superimposing an additional guiding term to the drift of the process under consideration. The guiding term is derived via approximation of the...

Bayesian estimation of discretely observed multi-dimensional diffusion processes using guided proposals

Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing data problem where the diffusion bridges in between discrete-time observations are missing. The...

Bayesian estimation of incompletely observed diffusions

We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation of incompletely observed multivariate diffusion processes. Observations are assumed to be discrete in time, noisy and incomplete. We assume the drift and diffusion coefficient depend on an unknown parameter. A data-augmentation algorithm for drawing from the posterior distribution is...

A non-parametric Bayesian approach to decompounding from high frequency data

Given a sample from a discretely observed compound Poisson process, we consider non-parametric estimation of the density f0 of its jump sizes, as well as of its intensity λ0. We take a Bayesian approach to the problem and specify the prior on f0 as the Dirichlet location mixture of normal densities. An independent prior for λ0 is assumed to be...