A stochastic model of geomorphic risk due to episodic river aggradation and degradation

In some steep valleys, flood-induced changes in river bed elevation pose significantly greater risks to infrastructure than floodwaters alone. Over the short term, the river may aggrade or degrade by several meters during a single flood. Whereas floodwaters recede after each event, moreover, riverbed changes add up over successive floods. To...

A temperature conditioned markov chain model for predicting the dynamics of mosquito vectors of disease

Understanding and predicting mosquito population dynamics is crucial for gaining insight into the abundance of arthropod disease vectors and for the design of effective vector control strategies. In this work, a climate-conditioned Markov chain (CMC) model was developed and applied for the first time to predict the dynamics of vectors of...

A stochastic process based reliability prediction method for LED driver

In this study, we present a general methodology that combines the reliability theory with physics of failure for reliability prediction of an LED driver. More specifically, an integrated LED lamp, which includes an LED light source with statistical distribution of luminous flux, and a driver with a few critical components, is considered. The...

Stochastic renewal process models for estimation of damage cost over the life-cycle of a structure

In the life-cycle cost analysis of a structure, the total cost of damage caused by external hazards like earthquakes, wind storms and flood is an important but highly uncertain component. In the literature, the expected damage cost is typically analyzed under the assumption of either the homogeneous Poisson process or the renewal process in...