Towards generalized ship's manoeuvre models based on real time simulation results in port approach areas

This paper presents an attempts towards creation of generalized models of ships manoeuvring area determination and ship performance created on the base of real simulation results. Those models are needed for better understanding of the safe navigation process in ports areas and its approaches and for risk analysis when no full information...

Defend or raise? Optimising flood risk reduction strategies

Flood risk reduction can be provided by interventions such as raising land or constructing flood defences. This paper introduces an approach to optimise the selection of risk reduction strategies. It expands existing economic optimization approaches for flood defences, by introducing (largely) analytical formulations to include the effects of...

Economic optimization of flood prevention systems in the Netherlands

After the flood disaster of 1953, the Netherlands adopted a rational approach to flood risk management with the use of protection standards determined by means of cost-benefit analysis. Due to scientific and political developments that have recently taken place, an update of the Dutch protection standards is being undertaken. One of the major...

Economic implications of multi-layer safety projects for flood protection

Recent experience of large-scale water disasters such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011 has reminded mankind that disasters cannot be ruledout. Unprecedented low-probability events can happen even in the most well monitored areas, causing major social-economic disruption. Failing to prepare...

Coping with the uncertainties in the climate change adaptation of river dikes using risk-aversion economic optimization

To guarantee a safe flood defence in a changing environment, the adaptation to climate change needs to be considered in the design of river dikes. However, the large uncertainty in the projections of future climate leads to varied estimations of future flood probability. How to cope with the uncertainties in future flood probability under...

An innovative approach to determine economically optimal coastal setback lines for risk informed coastal zone management

Current methods used to determine Coastal setback lines have several limitations. Furthermore, the historical practice of defining setback lines based on a single deterministic estimate is also proving inadequate with the emergence of risk management style coastal planning frameworks which require probabilistic estimates of coastal recession....

New safety standards for coastal flood defences in the Netherlands

The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defences in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project...

A risk-informed approach to coastal zone management

Economic and population growth have led to an unprecedented increase in the value at risk in coastal zones over the last century. To avoid excessive future losses, particularly in the light of projected climate change impacts, coastal zone managers have various instruments at their disposal. These primarily concern land-use planning ...

Safety standards of flood defenses

Current design codes like the Eurocode use safety or reliability classes to assign target reliabilities to different types of structures or structural members according to the potential consequences of failure. That, in essence, is a risk-based criterion. A wide range of structures is designed with such codes, and distinction is made between...

Effects of river system behaviour on flood risk

Risk based design of civil structures

The Art and Science of Model Building: A Bayesian Approach, by Prof. A. Der Kiureghian; The talk will describe a Bayesian approach to developing models, with special emphasis on limit-state models for reinforced concrete structures. The formulation can incorporate all kinds of information (theoretical models, laboratory experiments, field...

Waterbouwkundige kunstwerken - eilanden in de IJszee

Overzicht van kunstmatige eilanden t.b.v. de oliewinning in arctische gebieden (rond de Noordpool, Beaufort Sea). Includes a risk analysis for such an island

What is acceptable risk?

The acceptable failure probability of technical structures and systems is studied in this paper. The problem is approached from two points of view : the personal and the societal point of view. The different view points of acceptable risk lead to different criteria, although the basis of both is a cost/benefit analysis. Two trains of thought,...

Enkele gedachten aangaande een aanvaardbaar risiconiveau in Nederland

Het hierna volgende rapport is het resultaat van een studie, uitgevoerd door werkgroep 10 "Probabilistische methode" van de Technische Adviescommissie voor de Waterkeringen. Het beoogt een stap te zijn op een lange weg naar een zo goed mogelijke objectieve bepaling van normen voor risiconiveaus. Het rapport gaat in op de maatschappelijke...