Alignment of port policy to the context of the Physical Internet

The Physical Internet (PI) is a paradigm-changing and technology-driven vision, which is expected to significantly impact the development of the freight transport and logistics (FTL) system of today. However, the development of the FTL system towards the PI creates much uncertainty for its current stakeholders. Ports are one of those...

Coevolution of machine learning and process-based modelling to revolutionize Earth and environmental sciences: A perspective

Machine learning (ML) applications in Earth and environmental sciences (EES) have gained incredible momentum in recent years. However, these ML applications have largely evolved in ‘isolation’ from the mechanistic, process-based modelling (PBM) paradigms, which have historically been the cornerstone of scientific discovery and policy support....

Environmental impacts of key metals' supply and low-carbon technologies are likely to decrease in the future

The environmental benefits of low-carbon technologies, such as photovoltaic modules, have been under debate because their large-scale deployment will require a drastic increase in metal production. This is of concern because higher metal demand may induce ore grade decline and can thereby further intensify the environmental footprint of metal...

Impact of Scenario Selection on Robustness

Multiple plausible future scenarios are being used increasingly in preference to a single deterministic or probabilistic prediction of the future in the long-term planning of water resources systems. These scenarios enable the determination of the robustness of a system—the consideration of performance across a range of plausible futures—and...

The Virtual Reality Scenario Method: Moving from Imagination to Immersion in Criminal Decision-making Research

Objectives: This study proposes an alternative hypothetical scenario method capitalizing on the potential of virtual reality (VR). Rather than asking participants to imagine themselves in a specific situation, VR perceptually immerses them in it. We hypothesized that experiencing a scenario in VR would increase feelings of being “present” in...

Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands

Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, less is known about when automated vehicles will hit the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transportation technology will affect transportation demand and planning. This study identified through scenario analysis plausible future development paths of automated...

Risk-aware roadmapping for city logistics in 2025

This paper proposes a scenario based, multi-stakeholder, adaptive pathway approach, with an application for city logistics policies in 2025. The context of our application is the problem of limited sustainability of current freight transport practices in cities towards the long term future. We develop a multi-stakeholder roadmapping approach for...

Grasping the Heterogeneity of the Subsurface: using Buildup Scenarios for Assessing Flood-Protection Safety

The subsurface plays an important role when assessing flood risk and its build up has to be known in considerable detail to properly determine the chance of flood-protection failure. Currently, the subsurface below flood-protections is often characterized by geotechnical cross sections that are constructed using e.g. cone penetration tests (CPTs...

Development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: Scenarios for 2030 and 2050

This study identified through scenario analysis plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and estimated potential implications for traffic, travel behaviour and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of high or low technological development...

Combining Models and Commodity Chain Research for Making Long-Term Projections of Port Throughput: An Application to the Hamburg-Le Havre Range

Long term projections of cargo throughput are indispensable for port development plans. Although commodity flow projections are useful for governments, port authorities, terminal operating companies and port users, scientific research on commodity flow projections for ports is limited. Existing studies generally use econometric models that...

Cohesion Policy Contributing to Territorial Cohesion: Future Scenarios

The Barca Report advocates for developmental policies to be ‘place-based’: integrated as far as they affect ‘places’. The debate on territorial cohesion is equally concerned with integrating relevant policies and actions. This requires well-established democratic institutions and adequate responses to the demands of technical systems and of...

Sufficient Scope in Current Aircraft Technology Developments?: A Systems Analysis Application to the Multi Actor Aviation Technology System

Air travel demand is growing worldwide with an approximate worldwide long term average of 5 to 6% annually. This growth has both very positive and negative effects. Aviation is deeply embedded in our society. Dramatic decrease in ticket prices has brought to many the possibility of reaching many destinations worldwide in a day’s travel. It is...

Crowd control by multiple cameras

One of the goals of the crowd control project at Delft University of Technology is to detect and track people during a crisis event, classify their behavior and assess what is happening. The assumption is that the crisis area is observed by multiple cameras (fixed or mobile). The cameras sense the environment and extract features such as the...

Supporting conceptual product design by hybrid simulation of use processes with scenario structures

The approach described in this paper aims to offer designers a new way to investigate use processes of products by integrating scenarios of expected user behaviour with simulations of physical artefact behaviour. Use is considered a key process in the life cycle of a product, being the phase in which an instance of a product is put into service...

Aircraft technology's: Contribution to sustainable development

Aviation brings many advantages to society, reflected in its huge growth figures. But, aviation is also criticized for its many undesired effects. Sustainable Development as a concept is brought forward by many of the actors in the aviation system as a way in which aviation can develop itself in order to reduce its undesired effects. Some actors...

Qualitative futures research for innovation

This is about how commercial organisations use qualitative methods of futures research, such as scenarios, roadmapping and trend-analysis, in their innovation processes. The linkages etween innviation proceses and the methids can take place in different ways.