Modeling Pedestrian Tactical and Operational Decisions Under Risk and Uncertainty: A Two-Layer Model Framework

Pedestrian tactical choices and operational movement in evacuations essentially pertain to decision-making under risk and uncertainty. However, in microscopic evacuation models, this attribute has been greatly overlooked, even lacking a methodology to delineate the related decision characteristics (bounded rationality and risk attitudes), let...

An inquiry into gaming simulations for decision making: From design to knowledge management

GAMING simulations (games) have been closely relatedwith systems, and particularly with systems characterised as being complex. There is a long history on the evolution of systems from simply technical and social, to socio-technical (STS) and all the way to complex (adaptive) systems (CAS). Within this ever-increasing complexity, an important...

Modeling with stakeholders for transformative change

Coherent responses to important problems such as climate change require involving a multitude of stakeholders in a transformative process leading to development of policy pathways. The process of coming to an agreement on policy pathways requires critical reflection on underlying system conceptualizations and commitment to building capacity...

Optimism bias evaluation and decision-making risk forecast on bridge project cost based on reference class forecasting: Evidence from China

The high uncertainty of megaproject results in increasing complexity in the decisionmaking and ultimately leads to different degrees of cost overrun and project delays. One of the critical reasons for cost overrun and delay is the optimism bias of decision makers. Although the previous literature has analyzed the cost overrun distribution of...

A Monte Carlo approach to the ship-centric Markov decision process for analyzing decisions over converting a containership to LNG power

A Monte Carlo approach to the ship-centric Markov decision process (SC-MDP) is presented for analyzing whether a container ship should convert to LNG power in the face of evolving Emission Control Area regulations. The SC-MDP model was originally developed as a means to analyze uncertain, sequential decision making problems. However, the...

A metaphor for platform development processes

There is considerable research on platform market competition. However, there is significantly less research on governance of the preceding stage of platform development prior to market launch. This paper proposes that the avalanche game is an appropriate metaphor for this. A typical platform development process is outlined and the...

PROCRU simulation results compared with Metro II in-flight ILS approach data

The PROCRU (Procedure Oriented Crew) model has been developed for the analysis and modeling of flight crew procedures during an ILS approach. The model's specific capability concerns the generation of "timelines" of the necessary actions to be carried out by each crew member during the approach. Besides, also the corresponding timelines for...