The Dutch energy system is rapidly transforming due to electrification, decentralization, and renewable integration, causing widespread grid congestion. While grid reinforcement is slow and costly, Multi-Carrier Energy Hubs (MCEHs) are increasingly promoted as flexible, localized alternatives. These hubs, situated on industrial estates, coordinate electricity, heat, and potentially hydrogen to reduce reliance on transmission infrastructure. However, current evaluation methods of MCEHs are focused on short term feasibility and stakeholder-driven, often ignoring long-term societal impacts.
This research introduces the concept of structural societal value—the enduring economic, environmental, and social benefits of an energy hub beyond short-term congestion relief. Using a societal cost-benefit approach (MKBA) integrated with expert interviews and a custom-built energy flow model, the study evaluates MCEHs not only against grid reinforcement but also in terms of broader system outcomes. A case study of the Tholen industrial estate illustrates this approach in practice.
Results show that MCEHs offer temporary relief when congestion costs are high and reinforcements delayed. However, their structural value depends on local load profiles, flexibility needs, and renewable integration potential. By evaluating MCEHs through a consistent, criteria-based framework, decision-makers can determine whether a hub should remain temporary or evolve into a long-term solution. The findings stress the need for transparent trade-offs between hubs and traditional infrastructure, supporting more informed, adaptive energy planning.