Understanding the decadal morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and deltas and their controls is of vital importance regarding management for estuarine function and sustainable development. This work addresses this issue by applying a process-based model system (Delft3D) to hindcast and then forecast the morphodynamic evolution of the Yangtze Estuary at a decadal timescale. Forced by the river and tides, the model considers sand-mud mixture and the variations of river water discharge and sediment discharge. The morphodynamic model is validated against three periods, i.e., an accretion period (1958-1978), an erosion period (1986-1997) and a recent accretion period with human activities (2002-2010). Model results show good performance with respect to spatial erosion and deposition patterns, sediment volume changes, and hypsometry curves. The model reveals quite different behaviors for mud transport between the dry and wet seasons, which is subject to the prescription of river boundary conditions and bed composition. We define six scenarios to project evolution to the year 2030 under decreased river inputs and increased relative sea level. The simulations reveal that overwhelming amount of erosion will likely occur in the inner and mouth bar area of the estuary. Particularly, the mouth zone will shift from net deposition before 2010 to net erosion by 2030, mainly because of decreasing sediment supply. Changes in water discharge have minor effects on the projected trend. Net erosion will be considerable when the sediment supply is extremely low (100 Mt yr–1) due to the abundance of erodible modern sediment in the Yangtze Estuary. Erosion within the mouth bar area may be unexpected, including the deepening of the tidal inlet at East Chongming mudflat and the formation of a flood channel on the seaward side of Jiuduansha Shoal. Overall, the model results provide valuable information for sustainable delta management under changing conditions for both the Yangtze system and other similar estuaries and deltas with diminishing sediment supplies.

The Yangtze Estuary in China has been intensively influenced by human activities including altered river and sediment discharges in its catchment and local engineering projects in the estuary over the past half century. River sediment discharge has significantly decreased since the 1980s because of upstream dam construction and water-soil conservation. We analyzed bathymetric data from the Yangtze Estuary between 1958 and 2010 and divided the entire estuary into two sections: inner estuary and mouth bar area. The deposition and erosion pattern exhibited strong temporal and spatial variations. The inner estuary and mouth bar area underwent different changes. The inner estuary was altered from sedimentation to erosion primarily at an intermediate depth (5–15 m) along with river sediment decline. In contrast, the mouth bar area showed continued accretion throughout the study period. The frequent river floods during the 1990s and simultaneously decreasing river sediment probably induced the peak erosion of the inner estuary in 1986–1997. We conclude that both sediment discharge and river flood events played important roles in the decadal morphological evolution of the Yangtze Estuary. Regarding the dredged sediment, the highest net accretion rate occurred in the North Passage where jetties and groins were constructed to regulate the navigation channel in 1997–2010. In this period, the jetties induced enhanced deposition at the East Hengsha Mudflat and the high accretion rate within the mouth bar area was maintained. The impacts of estuarine engineering projects on morphological change extended beyond their sites