Population growth and climate change put a strain on water resources; hence, there are growing initiatives to reduce water use. Reducing household water use will likely reduce sewer input. This work demonstrates the use of a stochastic sewer model to quantify the effect water conservation has on sewer hydraulics and wastewater concentration. Probabilistic discharge patterns have been developed using SIMDEUM WW^® and fed into hydraulic modelling software InfoWorks ICM^® to produce likely flow and quality profiles for five future water use scenarios. The scenarios tested were developed to outline how commercial and political factors may change water use in future. Scenario testing revealed that 15-60% water reduction reflected a 1-48% drop in the morning peak flow. The water use reduction was predicted to increase wastewater concentrations of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and total phosphorus (TPH) by 55-180%, 19-116% and 30-206% respectively. The sewer flow model was developed, calibrated and validated using a case study in the Wessex Water region of the UK and all future scenarios were compared to the validated baseline case. This wastewater flow and quality model allows scenario testing, which could help redesign future sewer networks to better prepare for water conservation strategies.

Population growth and climate change place a strain on water resources; hence, there are growing initiatives to reduce household water use. UKWIR (2016) have a stated aim to halve water abstraction by 2050. This will significantly reduce inflow to sewer systems and increase wastewater concentration. This work presents a new stochastic sewer model that can be used to predict both hydraulic and pollutant loading for various water saving scenarios. The stochastic sewer model is based on integration of the stochastic water demand model SIMDEUM® with the InfoWorks ICM® (Sewer Edition) hydraulic model and software. This model has been developed using foul sewer networks, i.e. where household discharges are the dominant inflow; however, it could also be used in combined sewage systems where rainwater flows would add to the stochastic dry weather flow (DWF). The stochastic sewer model was tested and validated on several real catchments in the Wessex Water area of the UK. Calibration was carried out using metered consumption data. The stochastic sewer model gives an accurate prediction of the diurnal patterns of sewage discharge at a household level and was validated using real flow measurements within the catchment. The results obtained indicate that this model can be used to accurately predict changes in flow due to water conservation. A preliminary study for the impact of low water use on this validated network model has been conducted and it was found that overnight and daytime flow was reduced by up to 80% whereas evening flows remained largely similar. Extended stagnation times were observed in the street scale pipes (150 mm) in the low water use scenario.