To assess the effect of flights departing within the horizon of the extended arrival manager (so-called popup flights), fast-time simulations are performed using an arrival manager research model. This model is tailored for operations at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport and integrated in BlueSky, which is an open-source air traffic management simulator. Simulation results show a significantly negative impact of popup flights on extended arrival management in terms of flight crew and air traffic control task load, sequence stability, and delay (cost). This impact can be mitigated by preplanning popup flights before departure and using their takeoff time estimates. This will, however, only be beneficial when these estimates are sufficiently accurate (better than two minutes). With currently achievable accuracies, it is better to discard these estimates in the context of extended arrival management.@en

The occurrence of pop-up flights negatively affects the (extended) arrival manager. This issue is known already for a long time by operational experts, but the extent thereof has now been assessed during experiments. An arrival manager research model was developed and integrated in BlueSky, an open-source air traffic management simulator. Fast-time simulations showed that extended arrival management is significantly negatively affected by pop-up flights, in terms of flight crew and air traffic control task load, sequence stability and delay (cost). Simulations also indicated that this impact could be mitigated by pre-planning pop-up flights prior to departure, using their take-off time estimates. This will, however, only be beneficial when these estimates are sufficiently accurate. With currently achievable accuracies, and using currently available systems, it is better to discard these estimates in the context of extended arrival management. @en