This research focuses on establishing the most effective way to provide flexible power generation via gas turbines with hydrogen in 2040 from a techno-economic perspective. Assisting policymakers and energy companies in making informed decisions about future strategies. The increase in intermittent renewable energy capacity increases the pressure for flexible, dispatchable energy generation to bridge gaps when solar or wind energy is unavailable. Currently this flexible power generation can be produced via Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) that run on natural gas, producing green house gasses in the process.
To conduct this research, a multi-criteria analysis is performed on the CCGT in Moerdijk for the year 2040. Comparing an alternative relying on blue hydrogen, one relying on green hydrogen, and one relying on a blend of blue and green hydrogen against the continuation of running on natural gas. This method established a systematical approach to evaluate and compare different alternatives based on multiple criteria, while aiding to narrow the knowledge gap in understanding the combined effect that different technologies have on flexible power generation. This analysis resulted in the continuation on natural gas as a fuel for the CCGT being the top performer. However, assuming the need for a sustainable alternative, the top performer was different for each of the three forecasts. In the forecast with a low installed capacity of renewable energy, the top performing option is to use blue hydrogen as a fuel. In the central forecast, the alternative that combines blue and green hydrogen as a fuel is the top performer, in the high forecast, green hydrogen takes the lead.
Two sensitivity analyses, decreasing the impact of capital expenditure and overall system efficiency in the analysis, revealed a decrease in the performance of natural gas and an increased performance of green hydrogen alternative. The results show that the lack of adaptability problems and capital expenditure outweigh the large CO2 emissions and CO2 related costs of the continuation of using natural gas as a fuel. Regulations or incentives to decrease the capital expenditure of alternatives running on hydrogen can greatly stimulate the development towards more sustainable flexible power generation.
The energy demand for the CCGT in Moerdijk in 2040 is determined based on three different forecasts for the year 2040. Using electricity data from the CCGT in Moerdijk, along Dutch energy data from 2023, three running profiles are established. This revealed that the running profiles are bound by the limitations of the CCGT across the forecast.
For each of these alternatives, the total annual cost is calculated by optimising the production capacity of hydrogen storage, the storage capacity, and the hydrogen flow for each hour throughout the year.
To reveal the problems and opportunities associated with implementing the alternatives for the year 2040, interviews with professionals in the energy sector are conducted. These interviews showed great challenges towards the technical and infrastructural adaptability of implementation of the hydrogen based alternatives, and great challenges for the alternative on natural gas from operational longevity and dependability perspective.