This study explores perceptions of uncertainty and its effects on the policy-process on the science-policy interface in the Netherlands. Practitioners experience a misalignment, which leads to misunderstanding, decreased usefulness of policy assessments, and in the end affect policy design and investments.
Policy analysis can provide valuable information to understand what policy options are effective in complex policy problems, taking into account the uncertainty of human behaviour, economic development, and even weather changes. Previous studies have shown however that the applicability and relevance of uncertainty communication has been limited, specifically for policy-makers.
The case studied is the perception of uncertainty by researchers and policy officers that produce and use the Climate and EnergyOutlook in theNetherlands, which presents projections of emissions and energy use with an uncertainty bandwidth.
A conceptual framework was developed to capture how uncertainty is understood in scientific literature: Framing, Characterisation, Impact, and methods of Dealing with uncertainty. Using an adapted mental model method, 9 researchers and 6 policy officers were interviewed, and their perceptions qualitatively coded (deductive and inductive) and compared.
It is concluded that two distinct perspectives were indicated on each aspect of uncertainty (definition, characterisation, and interpretation), shaped by values and institutional context. The differences were just more nuanced than a split between the participant groups. Probability statements helped align interpretation, but this may risk neglecting other important (qualitative) aspects of uncertainty. As uncertainty is also used strategically, there is a limitation to how much researchers can influence the impact of uncertainty information.
The observations help clarify the difference in uncertainty perception experienced on the science-policy interface, how they effect communication and policy-making, and suggest ways to improve alignment. Though this case study focuses on a specific presentation of uncertainty in projections of greenhousegas emissions, the findings offer a new perspective on uncertainty perception in policy analysis.