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M. Pupić Vurilj

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3 records found

Extreme sea level events pose significant risks to coastal regions, with non-tidal residuals (NTRs) being a primary driver in low-lying areas like the Netherlands, where shallow seas amplify their impact. This study investigates the spatial patterns of NTRs along the Dutch coast using time series clustering on historical NTR hydrographs. The design of hydraulic boundary conditions divides the Netherlands into three coastal regions. To evaluate whether this division sufficiently captures regional variability, three clustering scenarios (k = 3, k = 4, and k = 5) were explored. The analysis identified k = 5 as the optimal configuration based on the Davies-Bouldin index. This result emphasized the importance of fine-scale approaches to understanding regional spatial variations in NTR dynamics. Regional bathymetry and tide-surge interactions were explored as drivers of these spatial patterns. Southern stations near river systems and deeper waters displayed characteristics distinct from northern stations in the Wadden Sea, which are influenced by shallow tidal flats. Analysis of the M2 tidal constituent and the timing of NTR maxima relative to high tides underscored the role of tidal dynamics in shaping spatial clusters. Future research will focus on integrating spatio-temporal patterns and environmental drivers into clustering methodologies, providing deeper insights for coastal risk management and adaptation strategies. ...
Journal article (2025) - Mia Pupić Vurilj, José A. Á. Antolínez, Sanne Muis, Oswaldo Morales Napoles
Due to changing climates and rising sea levels, low-lying coastal regions, such as the Netherlands, face increased risks of flooding driven by extreme sea levels. Thus, understanding extreme sea level events and their underlying dynamics is crucial for effective coastal management. This study developed and applied a novel classification framework to investigate historical storm surge events along the Dutch coast and improve the understanding of regional storm surge dynamics. Using 16 sea level records, storm surges were identified with the Peak Over Threshold (POT) method, using the 70th (POT70) and 99th (POT99) percentiles as thresholds. POT70 captured a more comprehensive storm surge activity, including multiple peaks and successive surges that are critical for coastal management. In contrast, POT99 captured surge peaks but missed significant pre- and post-storm surge activities. The POT70-derived surges were classified into 56 event types using clustering methods based on surge values across the whole event time series, and event duration. Event types were then characterised by temporal patterns, peak magnitude, duration, probability of occurrence, yearly frequency, and cumulative surge intensity. Key findings revealed frequent two-peak storm surges and significant variations in storm surge intensity along the coast, with stronger events occurring in northern regions. The results highlight the complexity of storm surge patterns, indicating that while simplified hydrograph models are useful, they may not always capture the full range of surge pattern variations. This novel classification framework offers a more detailed approach to evaluating surge patterns and can be applied to other coastal regions as well. ...

Observations, data analysis and synoptic background

Journal article (2023) - Mia Pupić Vurilj, Tina Brnas, Krešimir Ruić, Jadranka Šepić, Marijana Balić
Meteorological tsunamis (i.e., tsunami-like waves of atmospheric origin) are regularly observed in the Mediterranean Sea. During a single event, destructive flooding usually occurs in one location or limited area. However, in May 2021 and June 2022, strong meteotsunamis hit several Mediterranean locations up to 500 km apart. In the morning hours of the 24th of May 2021, a meteotsunami hit Bonifacio on the island of Corsica (western Mediterranean, France) and in the afternoon hours of the same day, another meteotsunami hit Široka Bay on the island of Ist (Adriatic Sea, Croatia), 500 km away. About 13 months later, on the 26th of June 2022, a meteotsunami hit Ciutadella on the island of Menorca (Spain) and two days later Bonifacio, 400 km away. Sea-level and atmospheric pressure data and satellite imagery, as well as synoptic conditions, associated with both events were analysed in detail. It has been confirmed that in the Mediterranean, meteotsunamis occur when meteotsunamigenic synoptic conditions prevail over the area, with a strong southwesterly jet stream embedded in dynamically or convectively unstable atmospheric layers standing out as the most important condition. The mete-otsunamigenic potential of each of the three bays (Ciutadella, Bonifacio, Širo-ka Bay) was investigated by considering: (1) the potential for Proudman resonance on the shelves offshore of the bays, (2) the orientation of the mouth of the bay and (3) the frequency of meteotsunamigenic synoptic conditions over the area. The strongest and most frequent meteotsunamis occur at locations where the shelf characteristics (width, depth, orientation), bay mouth orientation and distribution of general synoptic conditions, have characteristics that support the amplification of long-ocean waves and their propagation toward the bay mouth. ...