Carbonate reservoirs host significant hydrocarbon, groundwater, geothermal and CO2- and H2-storage resources. However, their complex depositional, tectonic and diagenetic histories make it challenging to efficiently characterize and predict their flow behavior. Here, we use a novel, rapid and efficient screening methodology that integrates experimental design, the construction of three-dimensional (3D) reservoir models via sketch-based methods and single-phase flow diagnostics to investigate the impact of geological heterogeneity on flow patterns and displacement in an ultra-deep (>7 km) carbonate reservoir in the north-central Tarim Basin, northwest China. Eight heterogeneities are investigated: (1) strike-slip fault zone width; (2) complexity of flower structure configuration; (3) continuity of fault core lithology; fault zone rock properties related to (4) karstification and (5) late, post-karstification cementation; (6) the occurrence of fault-perpendicular fracture corridors; (7) connectivity of fracture corridors to fault zones and (8) variability in host rock porosity and permeability. Fault zone width has the most significant impact on reservoir properties, with wider fault zones increasing effective horizontal permeability along fault zone strike. Fracture corridor occurrence and connectivity to the fault zone are the principal heterogeneities controlling effective permeability perpendicular to fault zone strike. Fault zone rock properties reflecting karstification and late cementation also significantly impact effective permeability in all directions. Other heterogeneities have little effect on effective permeability and well performance. However, simulated wells in negative flower structures and the main fault zone have higher productivities on average than simulated wells in positive flower structures and the host rock, similar to published production data from the ultra-deep reservoir. This study demonstrates the value of the screening methodology for assessing the effects of uncertainty in the interpretation of geological heterogeneities in complex carbonate reservoirs, in order to narrow the focus of future, more comprehensive reservoir simulations. The screening methodology is directly transferable to low-carbon energy applications in settings with sparse data.

We describe an efficient and novel method to characterise multiscale geological heterogeneity and its effects on fluid flow using an open-source, sketch-based modelling and flow diagnostics tool (Rapid Reservoir Modelling. RRM). The method has three aims: (1) to generate a nested hierarchy of geologically accurate models of sedimentological heterogeneity at different scales; (2) to determine the representative elementary volume (REV) for each heterogeneity style, in order to calculate effective properties for larger scale models; and (3) to evaluate the impact of sedimentological heterogeneity on fluid flow and trapping in the hierarchy of geological models. The sketch-based modelling approach enables the construction of multiple geometrically accurate geological models and allows us to analyse them quickly using flow diagnostics and simulation tools. We illustrate this approach using examples from Triassic fluvial sandstones of the UK (Bunter Sandstone and Sherwood Sandstone), which host groundwater and geothermal resources and are targets for carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Net-transgressive, shallow-marine sandstone reservoirs overlain by thick mudstone seals are prime candidates for storage of CO2, H2 and thermal energy. Although these reservoirs have high net-to-gross ratios, analogous outcrops demonstrate a wide range of sedimentological heterogeneities that are sampled only sparsely or at low resolution in subsurface data. We use a combination of outcrop data, sketch-based reservoir modelling and flow diagnostics to assess the impact of sedimentological heterogeneities on subsurface storage.

The Cliff House Sandstone outcrop example comprises wave-dominated shoreface sandstones arranged in aggradationally-to-retrogradationally stacked parasequences, which overlie and pass up depositional dip into mudstone-dominated coastal plain, lagoonal and tidal flat deposits that encase channelized tidal and tidally influenced fluvial sandbodies. Reservoir models of this outcrop example demonstrate that effective horizontal permeability, flow patterns and displacement, and stratigraphic trapping potential are controlled by: (1) the packaging of shoreface sandstones into laterally extensive parasequences bounded by offshore mudstones; (2) the spatial distribution, connectivity and permeability of channelized sandbodies; and (3) the localized connections between channelized sandbodies and shoreface sandstones. The last two parameters are likely to be poorly constrained in subsurface seismic and well data, and their potential effects require evaluation in reservoir modelling studies.

Understanding effective permeability is crucial for predicting fluid migration and trapping in subsurface reservoirs. The Bunter Sandstone of northwestern Europe hosts major groundwater and geothermal resources and is targeted for CO2 storage projects. Here the effective permeability of fluvial facies within the Bunter Sandstone Formation was assessed using facies-scale models. Twelve lithofacies were modeled based on core and outcrop observations of their geometries and dimensions. Permeability values from minipermeameter measurements were assigned to low- and high-permeability lithologies in each facies. The dimensions of a Representative Elementary Volume (REV) in depositional dip, depositional strike and vertical directions were determined by extracting sub-volumes from the models at different scales, calculating values of effective permeability for each sub-volume, and identifying the sub-volume at which the values of effective permeability stabilise as the REV. The REV dimensions vary with facies type and flow direction, but are typically of order tens of centimetres to metres in size, significantly larger than a typical core plug. Having identified the REV, we analyze the effective permeabilities of the different facies types. Normalized values of effective permeabilities in depositional dip, strike and vertical directions (kd, ks, kv), relative to the permeability of low- and high-permeability lithologies in each facies, display a positive linear correlation with the proportion of high-permeability lithology (clay-poor sandstone) for all facies. Therefore, the proportion of clay-poor sandstone, as measured in core data, can be used to predict facies-scale effective permeability in the Bunter Sandstone Formation, as well as in analogous fluvial deposits globally.

In this contribution we compare results between fast screening methods based on flow diagnostics with results from full-physics simulations for CO2-brine displacement. Specifically, we analyse how either method identifies the key geological features that control CO2 plume migration across an ensemble of reservoir models for the shallow marine system present in the Johansen and Cook formations of the Northern Lights project. Our results indicate that many of the heterogeneities that appear to control CO2 plume migration based on the fast flow diagnostics also control CO2 plume migration when considering the complex fluid flow physics inherent to CO2-brine displacement. However, the magnitude of impact differs between both methods, conforming the hypothesis that more complex fluid flow processes increase the impact of geological heterogeneity on reservoir flow. Our results suggest that fast-screening methods like the one proposed by Jackson et al. (2022) are a reliable approach to analyse which heterogeneities at a given storage site are most likely to control CO2 plume migration, helping geoscientist and reservoir engineers to design more meaningful reservoir models that contain the key geological heterogeneities and allow us to predict CO2 plume migration more reliably.

During the development of subsurface geothermal energy, geological complexity and uncertainty pose challenges when developing and managing a geothermal resource. We are therefore developing a digital twin for subsurface geothermal energy that will be applied to the geothermal project on the TU Delft campus. This digital twin combines geological modelling, property modelling, reservoir simulation, and data assimilation. A core principle of our approach is to consider multiple geological models of the reservoir and use real-time production data to update them to constrain uncertainties and adapt operational strategies.

This paper focuses on the efficient exploration of geological scenarios and design of geological modelling for the digital twin. We use the Rapid Reservoir Modelling (RRM) platform, which is tailored to quickly create 3D models in data-poor situations. We have developed a novel methodology where RRM is used to design templates of individual layers for a given geological scenario. These templates are then extracted and stacked to create different 3D geological scenarios constrained by NTG and well logs. The resulting model ensemble is geologically consistent and captures a diverse range of heterogeneity, providing a robust starting point for exploring the performance of a geothermal reservoir under geological uncertainty in a digital twin.

Sketch-based interface and modelling is an approach to reservoir modelling that allows rapid and intuitive creation of 3D reservoir models to test and evaluate geological concepts and hypotheses and thus explore the impact of geological uncertainty on reservoir behaviour. A key advantage of such modelling is the quick creation and quantitative evaluation of reservoir model prototypes. Flow diagnostics capture key aspects of reservoir flow behaviour under simplified physical conditions that enable the rapid solution of the governing equations, and are essential for such quantitative evaluation. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel and highly efficient implementation of a flow diagnostics framework, illustrated with applications to geological storage of CO2. Our implementation permits ‘on-the-fly’ estimation of the key reservoir properties that control CO2 migration and storage during the active injection period when viscous forces dominate. The results substantially improve the efficiency of traditional reservoir modelling and simulation workflows by highlighting key reservoir uncertainties that need to be evaluated in subsequent full-physics reservoir simulations that account for the complex interplay of viscous, gravity, and capillary forces.

The methods are implemented in the open-source Rapid Reservoir Modelling software, which includes a simple to use graphical user interface with no steep learning curve. We present proof-of-concept studies of the new flow diagnostics implementation to investigate the CO2 storage potential of sketched 3D models of shallow marine sandstone tongues and deep water slope channels.

Energy derived from geothermal systems is essential to the energy transition. Inherent geological and a lack of data requires the use of computer-driven modelling and simulation to aid decision-making. To make sound decisions, many reservoir models that encapsulate different geological scenarios should be analysed such that the impact of geological uncertainty on geothermal energy production can be evaluated adequately. Current geomodelling workflows, however, are too time consuming to build and explore different contrasting geological scenarios at various scales.

In this study we used the open-source Rapid Reservoir Modelling (RRM) software to design different geological scenarios of a shallow marine succession hosting a potential geothermal reservoir and analyse how multi-scale geological features impact reservoir flow. RRM allows users to quickly create and explore realistic 3D geological models from intuitive 2D sketches. Models arecreated in minutes while flow diagnostics allow us to analyse fluid-flow behavior in real-time. Models are then imported into commercial reservoir simulation packages to investigate the effect of heterogeneity and scale on geothermal energy production. We show how we can quickly evaluate how different scales of heterogeneity impact geothermal production estimates and which heterogeneities must be represented in reservoir models to obtain reliable results about the possible reservoir behaviours.

Sketch-based modelling with flow diagnostics provides a prototyping approach to quickly build geomodels and generate quantitative results to evaluate volumetrics and flow behaviour. This approach allows users to rapidly test the sensitivity of model outputs to different geological concepts and uncertain parameters, and informs selection of geological concepts, scales and resolutions to be investigated in more detailed models. Rapid Reservoir Modelling (RRM) is a sketch-based modelling tool with an intuitive interface that allows users to rapidly sketch geological models in 3D. Geological models that capture the essence of heterogeneity of interest and related uncertainty can be created within minutes. Flow diagnostics then instantly computes key indicators of predicted flow and storage behaviour within seconds. Here we apply the prototyping approach to three aspects of geoenergy modelling: (1) scenario screening to identify heterogeneities with the most impact; (2) use of mini-models and hierarchical models to derive effective properties; and (3) training of geoscientists and engineers to investigate the impact of geological interpretations on storage volumes and connectivity. Geomodels addressing all three aspects are constructed and analysed quickly, using simple, geologically intuitive workflows that do not require prior geomodelling expertise.

We use a combination of experimental design, sketch-based reservoir modelling and flow diagnostics to rapidly screen the impact of sedimentological heterogeneities that constitute baffles and barriers on CO ₂ migration in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs and saline aquifers of the Sherwood Sandstone Group and Bunter Sandstone Formation, UK. These storage units consist of fluvial sandstones with subordinate aeolian sand-stones, floodplain and sabkha heteroliths and lacustrine mudstones. The predominant control on effective hor-izontal permeability is the lateral continuity of aeolian-sandstone intervals. Effective vertical permeability is controlled by the lateral extent, thickness and abundance of lacustrine-mudstone layers and aeolian-sandstone layers, and the mean lateral extent and mean vertical spacing of carbonate-cemented basal channel lags in fluvial facies-association layers. The baffling effect on CO ₂ migration and retention is approximated by the pore vol-ume injected at breakthrough time, which is controlled largely by three heterogeneities, in order of decreasing impact: (1) the lateral continuity of aeolian-sandstone intervals; (2) the lateral extent of lacustrine-mudstone lay-ers; and (3) the thickness and abundance of fluvial-sandstone, aeolian-sandstone, floodplain-and-sabkha-heter-olith and lacustrine-mudstone layers. Future effort should be focused on characterizing these three heterogeneities as a precursor for later capillary, dissolution and mineral trapping.

We discuss the application of the new open-source Rapid Reservoir Modelling software (RRM) to create a suite of 3D reservoir models of a complex carbonate formation where each model is increasingly more refined such that progressively more small-scale geological structures are preserved. Using flow diagnostics we then calculate key metrics for the dynamic reservoir behaviour to quantify the similarities and dissimilarities of the flow behaviour across the different models. This analysis allows us to identify at which scale geological heterogeneities need to be resolved in the reservoir model to capture the essential flow behaviours. The workflow presented in this study hence allows us to efficiently and effectively test different geological concepts and analyse how multi-scale geological heterogeneities that may need to be represented in a reservoir model impact the predicted dynamic response, so as to design more reliable and robust reservoir models for a broad range of geoenergy applications.

Production of subsurface heat from geothermal sources and subsurface storage of heat (and cool) are important for energy transition. Doublets for geothermal and warm- and cold wells for aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) depend on circulation of fluids and heat. Estimating the potential and feasibility of such systems requires a careful analysis with simulation of fluid flow and heat transport. As building models and running simulations are time-consuming, a prototyping approach is beneficial to quickly assess viability and sensitivity of such systems. Sketch-based geological modelling combined with flow diagnostics forms the ideal for such a prototyping approach. Geological models can be sketched in 3D in a couple of minutes. Flow diagnostics then provides several key metrics on predicted flow behaviour. The quick turnaround time from sketching to quantitative results is key to understand the impact of heterogeneity on flow and helps to decide which detailed geological models and flow simulations are useful to carry out. This prototyping approach is applied to aquifers in shallow marine deposits, as proxy for thermal breakthrough time in geothermal doublet system and to estimate well spacing between cold and hot wells for ATES.

We use a method combining experimental design, sketch-based reservoir modelling, and single-phase flow diagnostics to rapidly screen the impact of sedimentological heterogeneities that constitute baffles and barriers to CO2 migration in the Johansen and Cook formations at the Northern Lights CO2 storage site. The types and spatial organisation of sedimentological heterogeneities in the wave-dominated deltaic sandstones of the Johansen-Cook storage unit are constrained using core data from the 31/5-7 (Eos) well, previous interpretations of seismic data and regional well-log correlations, and outcrop and subsurface analogues. Delta planform geometry, clinoform dip, and facies-association interfingering extent along clinoforms control: (1) the distribution and connectivity of high-permeability medial and proximal delta-front sandstones, (2) effective horizontal and vertical permeability characteristics of the storage unit, and (3) pore volumes injected at breakthrough time (which approximates the efficiency of stratigraphic baffling). In addition, the lateral continuity of carbonate-cemented concretionary layers along transgressive surfaces impacts effective vertical permeability, and bioturbation intensity impacts effective horizontal and vertical permeability. The combined effects of these and other heterogeneities are also influential. Our results suggest that the baffling effect on CO2 migration and retention of sedimentological heterogeneity is an important precursor for later capillary, dissolution and mineral trapping.

We use a method combining experimental design, sketch-based reservoir modelling, and flow diagnostics to rapidly screen the impact of sedimentological heterogeneities on CO2 migration and storage by stratigraphic trapping. Experimental design allows efficient exploration of a wide parameter space, sketch-based modelling enables rapid construction of deterministic models of interpreted geological scenarios, and flow diagnostics provide computationally cheap approximations of full-physics, multiphase simulations that are reasonable for many subsurface-flow conditions. Integrated sketch-based reservoir modelling and flow diagnostics are implemented in open source research code (Rapid Reservoir Modelling, RRM). The method is applied to two case studies: (1) the Triassic Sherwood Sandstone Group and Bunter Sandstone Formation, UK, which comprise fluvial-aeolian sandstones, floodplain and sabkha heteroliths, and lacustrine mudstones; and (2) the Jurassic Johansen and Cook formations, offshore western Norway, which record progradation of a wave-dominated delta system. Results for the two case studies are compared using effective permeability (kx, ky, kz) and pore volume injected at breakthrough time (a measure of how much injected fluid is stored in the model volume as a result of stratigraphic trapping).

Pore-network representations of permeable media provide the framework for explicit simulation of capillary-driven immiscible displacement governed by invasion-percolation theory. The most demanding task of a pore-network flow simulation is the identification of trapped defending phase clusters at every displacement step, i.e. the phase connectivity problem. Instead of employing the conventional adjacency list we represent the connectivity of a phase cluster as a tree accompanied by a set of adjacent non-tree edges. In this graph representation, a decrease in phase connectivity due to a pore displacement event corresponds to deletion of either a tree or a non-tree edge. Deletion of a tree edge invokes a computationally intensive search for a possible reconnection of the resulting subtrees by an adjacent non-tree edge. The tree representation facilitates a highly efficient execution of the reconnection search. Invasion-percolation simulations of secondary water floods under different wetting conditions in pore-networks of different origin and size confirm the efficiency of the proposed phase connectivity algorithm. Moreover, a systematic simulation study of runtime growth with increasing model size on regular lattice networks demonstrates a consistent orders-of-magnitude speed-up compared to conventional simulations. Consequently, the proposed algorithm proves to be a powerful tool for invasion-percolation simulations on large multi-scale networks and for extensive stochastic analysis of typical single-scale pore-networks.