In this study, a newly developed rate-dependent thermo-plastic constitutive model was enhanced to incorporate thermally accelerated creep and implemented into the Plaxis finite-element code, enabling the simulation of the behaviour of a well-instrumented energy pile in multilayered soft soils under thermomechanical loads. First, the model was validated against non-isothermal laboratory tests on soils surrounding the pile, and then against simulations of field tests. The results revealed that the inclusion of thermally accelerated creep improves the prediction of irreversible pile settlement, which is primarily attributed to the accumulation of volumetric contraction in the surrounding soil after each thermal cycle. The analysis also distinguishes between drag down effects resulting from thermo-elastic and thermo-plastic behaviour, as well as those induced by long-term creep.

Integrating renewable energy into district heating creates a heat supply–demand mismatch that High-Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (HT-ATES) can help address. However, the potential greenhouse gas emission reduction and financial benefits of HT-ATES have received limited attention. Additionally, the interplay between the demand, supply components, and HT-ATES has been overlooked, while the assessment of integrating HT-ATES into a district heating system is crucial to understanding the benefits of the HT-ATES implementation. This study evaluates the integration of HT-ATES into a district heating system, focusing on both economic and environmental performance indicators. It novelly accounts for the dynamic operational interactions between HT-ATES and other system components, enabling a more realistic assessment of operational choices. The model is applied to a case study of a simplified district heating system. The results show that the relative size of the heat supplier compared to heat demand is a key determinant of the cost-effectiveness of HT-ATES. In the case study, a geothermal doublet reduced the levelized cost of heat by 25–37 €/MWh compared to a gas boiler, while also reducing reliance on fossil fuels. In contrast, HT-ATES had a limited impact on total system costs, regardless of whether it operated when stored heat was available or was used for peak shaving. Nevertheless, HT-ATES increased the renewable energy share by 9%–18% across all scenarios. Furthermore, the optimal geothermal capacity differed depending on whether HT-ATES was included. Finally, while a high renewable energy share can be cost-effective, achieving 100% renewable heat was found to be highly cost-ineffective in this case. These results support informed decision-making on HT-ATES implementation under appropriate system design conditions.

This document describes the drilling, completion and testing of the pilot borehole (DEL-HTO-P01), which will later be utilized as a monitoring well for High Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (HT-ATES). The work includes all materials, components, tools, and services that are related to the preparation, delivery, installation, measurement, and completion of the components belonging to the test drilling and monitoring well. The following analysis combines various data sources to characterize the subsurface for the Delft Demonstration site (WP1). The location of the DEL-HTO-P01 is demonstrated in Figure 1, which is located at RD-coordinates X = 85,257 m, Y = 445,757 m.

All data presented in this report have been published via TU Delft institutional data repository 4TU.ResearchData under the CC BY 4.0 license. The initial borehole dataset and the CT scan data can be found via https://doi.org/10.4121/1694ba82-db41-4017-8d1c-9de3ce1a785e and https://doi.org/10.4121/9902ebc7-dbd6-43b1-a3c3-85ff9ab645a9.

Despite the advantages of using Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment, adoption in practice has been limited due to the lack of realistic, facility-scale studies. Scaling up from systems to facility-level safety assessments poses challenges in (i) integrating external hazards and their cascading effects, and (ii) resolving non-homogeneity of various technical and human reliability models. The novelty of the study is in formalising risk integration using Bayesian networks, at facility scale, and demonstrating its effectiveness in addressing associated challenges. A Bayesian network-based multi-hazard risk framework is introduced and demonstrated for a nuclear power plant subject to flooding and earthquake hazards, capturing dependencies among hazards and consequences. Individual reliability models – conventionally extraneous to facility-wide risk models – are included as subnetworks by using Bayesian network-based surrogate models for technical systems and a Bayesian networks approach for human reliability modelling. Two approaches are used for subnetwork integration – object-oriented and unified Bayesian networks. The unified approach allows for prediction, diagnostics and inter-causal reasoning since Bayesian inference is bi-directional. Conversely, in the object-oriented approach, diagnostics are limited to within individual subnetworks and as a consequence the model can potentially neglect dependencies between objects. However, the object-oriented model requires only 50 % of the computational memory and consumes less than 25% of the runtime as the unified network, while improving visual clarity of the risk model. The model reveals key insights – for example, variations in operator stress or available response time during a hazard event can result in up to a 77 % change in top event probability – demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing critical relationships in complex, facility-scale risk scenarios. These findings can be used to suitably allocate resources towards risk mitigation and plant safety management.

Cow-dung is a widely used stabiliser applied in traditional earthen buildings with one objective to improve water resistance. However, most research has focused on explaining its mechanical strength, with only one study suggesting water resistance mechanism via formation of insoluble compounds at high pH, a phenomenon uncommon in natural cow dung and soil mixtures. This article investigates the water-resistance behaviour of cow-dung stabilised compressed earthen blocks (CD-CEBs) through an extensive experimental programme to understand the influence of cow-dung and soil related factors and to characterise the components of cow-dung responsible for its water resistance. It was found that the small-sized microbial aggregates (SSMA) present in cow-dung, which are negatively charged hydrophobic aggregates of low specific surface area, are responsible for enhanced water resistance of CD-CEBs. The insights gained from experiments are compiled to recommend the following strategies for improved performance of CD-CEBs: (i) The use of wet cow-dung is advised over dry cow-dung as it provided over 80 times better water resistance; (ii) Adopting a higher compaction liquid content (by 3%) improved the water resistance by over 40 times; (iii) The water resistance of CD-CEBs was improved over 30 times by using soils rich in low-swelling clay minerals such as kaolinite. A case study applying these findings demonstrates the successful scaleup from the lab to field showcasing potential of cow-dung and soil in low-carbon construction.

Realistic numerical modeling of energy piles in soft soil requires advanced constitutive relationships capable of capturing the inherent thermo-plastic behavior of the surrounding ground. In this study, a newly developed rate-dependent, thermo-plastic constitutive model, called AVISA-T, is employed within the Plaxis Finite Element (FE) code to simulate the response of a well-instrumented energy pile embedded in multilayered soft soils subjected to thermo-mechanical loading. Following material parameter calibration and model prediction validation using non-isothermal laboratory tests on the soils surrounding the pile, the model was employed to simulate full-scale in-situ tests. In these simulations, the pile was initially subjected to either 0 % or 60 % of its bearing capacity and then exposed to continuous cooling over a period of up to three months. The AVISA-T model effectively reproduces the development of contractive and expansive strains, as well as compressive and tensile stresses that coexist along the pile shaft, including the accumulation of residual strains and stresses. In the absence of axial mechanical load, both residual contractive and expansive strains were observed, accompanied by irreversible uplift of the pile head, primarily attributed to non-uniform, unrecovered temperature changes. Moreover, under higher mechanical loading, the model captures dragdown effects resulting from thermal shrinkage of the surrounding soil, which contributes to the accumulation of permanent strains, stresses, and settlements. A comparison between simulations using the common Modified Cam Clay (MCC) model, the AVISA model without thermal effects and the AVISA-T model highlights the importance of using models including thermal plasticity for engineering practice.

Low-enthalpy geothermal heat production is becoming increasingly common, which leads to the potentially competitive use of the available subsurface space, especially in densely populated urban areas. A specific challenge presented by the high density of different geothermal systems is understanding the details of convective and conductive heat flow processes and detailed monitoring of properties and processes in the subsurface.

On the TU Delft campus, we aim to drill a borehole of around 4.5 km depth to be used for the exploration, observation, and monitoring of subsurface processes that will be part of a larger research infrastructure under development. This so-called urban energy laboratory includes – in addition to the deep multi-use borehole – a well-instrumented geothermal doublet drilled in 2023, reaching to a depth of 2.2 km; a local seismic monitoring system (installed in 2022); an ultra-sensitive portable seismic monitoring array; and a high-temperature aquifer heat storage system (HT-ATES), for which a pilot well was drilled in 2024. With this urban energy laboratory, we want to tackle problems and better understand processes related to multiple and/or competing subsurface uses in urban environments. The deep exploration and monitoring borehole is designed specifically to monitor fluid and/or flux movement in 3D with unprecedented precision, aiming to understand the propagation of the geothermal cold front and reservoir pressures.

During the 3 d International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP)-sponsored UrbEnLab workshop, 75 scientists from 17 countries met in Delft, the Netherlands, in June 2024 to prioritize the scientific ambitions of the deep exploration and monitoring borehole and to discuss potential techniques that could be applied to tackle them. Assessing the life cycle of a geothermal system situated in a complex heterogeneous sedimentary system was defined as the broad aim, with revealing the detailed flow field established being a key priority.

High-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage (HT-ATES) can play a key role in the energy transition. For well completion of conventional low-temperature ATES and groundwater wells, grout and/or clay pellets are typically utilised as annular materials to ensure the long-term well integrity. It is not yet known if such materials can also be used in HT-ATES working conditions. In this work, a novel approach to evaluate the sealing performance for such completion materials is proposed and tested over multiple thermal heating and cooling cycles representative of the conditions of HT-ATES operation. The experimental framework utilises a novel experimental design to test the apparent transmissivity of the annular material, followed by micro-CT scanning. During each test, up to 11 thermal cycles are applied, with temperature variations between 22oC and 90oC. For grouts after 7 days of curing, micro-CT scans reveal debonding and the occurrence of micro-annuli with an equivalent diameter of approximately 26% of the original cross-section. After 28 days of curing, the thermal cycles had a much reduced impact on micro-annulus formation. The corresponding apparent transmissivity decreased up to 80% for samples containing a high percentage of cementitious minerals and a low water-to-grout ratio. The clay pellets, saturated with fresh water, demonstrated effective sealing capacity and an impermeable behaviour. However, clay pellets saturated with 0.25 mol/L NaCl, showed up to an 85% decrease in swelling capacity yet still exhibited impermeable behaviour. The results indicated that thermal cycles affect the integrity of grouts, while clay pellets show resilience to them. Furthermore, longer curing periods and specific chemical compositions improve sealing performance and provide resilience to thermal cycles.

Soft stimulation technologies have been proposed as a means to reduce the breakdown pressure and mitigate the risk of induced seismicity during geothermal reservoir stimulation. Yet, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood due to the complexity of the coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes. In this work, a fully coupled THM model is developed to evaluate and compare the performance of different stimulation scenarios (monotonic, stepwise injection rate, cyclic injection rate or temperature, and stepwise combined with cyclic injection rate stimulation) on a synthetic, highly permeable reservoir with near-borehole clogging. Simulation results show that stepwise injection rate stimulation yields the most favourable outcomes, followed by the stepwise injection rate combined with cyclic injection rate stimulation. On the other hand, fatigue effects are seen to play a negligible role in the improved performance since the tensile stress at the fracture tip is relaxed with the continuous fracture growth. In addition, cyclic injection temperature stimulation is generally neither better nor worse than monotonic stimulation, but has slightly different characteristics, creating more local damage controlled by the period of the injection cycle. Cyclic injection rate stimulation can slightly reduce the peak pressure, compared with monotonic stimulation, but only when the injection rate is low. The reduction in peak pressure occurs due to the combination of thermally-induced stresses associated with cooling and incremental damage rather than any influence of fatigue. Stepwise or low-frequency cyclic injection rate stimulation are suggested rather than a high-frequency cyclic injection rate stimulation, while injection with cyclic temperatures is suggested when more local damage is wanted.

Rocks can undergo fatigue failure when subjected to cyclic mechanical, hydraulic, or thermal loadings, or a combination of these. Therefore, accounting for possible fatigue damage is important for subsurface engineering projects, such as the cyclic stimulation of geothermal reservoirs. However, existing models do not simultaneously account for degradation of both tensile strength and stiffness under varying-amplitude loading and coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) conditions. To address this, a new cohesive zone model is developed to account for the effect of fatigue on tensile strength and stiffness. The model is then used within the framework of zero-thickness interface elements to simulate the response of pre-existing or new fractures. Hydraulic and thermal processes are included in both the cohesive interface elements and the continuum elements, allowing the consideration of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical processes. The fatigue damage variable is set to evolve with the number and magnitude of cycles according to Palmgren-Miner's rule. The proposed method is validated against three laboratory tests from the literature, including cyclic Brazilian test, cyclic hydraulic fracturing test and cyclic thermal stimulation test. All three validation results show that the fatigue damage or reduced breakdown pressure can be well reproduced. Mesh sensitivity based on the simulation of the Brazilian test, in which interface elements are inserted in-between all the continuum elements, highlights the influence of the mesh orientation and mesh density on the simulation results. In addition, stabilisation of the method is demonstrated by increasing the mechanical viscosity, which must be used with care to avoid predicting a longer fatigue life. The ability of the method to handle varying-amplitude cyclic loading is demonstrated by the simulation of a synthetic cyclic loading scheme based on the Brazilian test. The proposed method can be used to support the design of cyclic thermal stimulation campaigns for geothermal (or other) reservoirs, by being able to simulate the reduction in strength due to fatigue, and thus reducing stimulation pressures needed.

Energiepfähle werden zunehmend als multifunktionale Gründungselemente eingesetzt, die tragende Funktionen mit der Nutzung geothermischer Energie kombinieren. Während das mechanische Verhalten in der Bemessung üblicherweise berücksichtigt wird, werden thermische Einwirkungen häufig in vereinfachter elastischer Form behandelt. Langzeitiges Heizen und Kühlen kann jedoch irreversible Bodenverformungen und Spannungsumlagerungen hervorrufen, insbesondere in weichen und geschichteten Böden. Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Relevanz thermoplastischen Bodenverhaltens für die Bemessung von Energiepfählen unter Verwendung eines thermo-visko-hypoplastischen Stoffmodells für feinkörnige Böden (AVISA-T), das zyklische Belastung berücksichtigt. Das Modell wird in einem Finite-Elemente-Programm implementiert und anhand großmaßstäblicher Energiepfahlversuche in Delft (NL) unter unterschiedlichen axialen Lastniveaus und langzeitiger thermischer Beanspruchung evaluiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass thermoplastische Effekte maßgeblich die Pfahlkopfverformungen sowie die Umlagerung der Normalkräfte entlang des Pfahls bestimmen können, was mit konventionellen thermo-elastischen oder thermo-elasto-plastischen Ansätzen nicht erfasst wird.

This study presents a thermo-hydro-mechanical framework to model hydrothermal systems within a simplified faulted synthetic reservoir, replicating current production scenarios in The Netherlands and Germany. The reservoir, composed of porous and permeable sandstone, and the confining layer, made of porous but less permeable shale, undergoes a process where cold water is injected and hot water is extracted. A fault, situated 750 meters from the injection well, is investigated to examine the conditions when fault slip could occur. Various fault and formation stiffnesses are modeled to assess their impact on fault stability. Our analysis reveals that stress changes induced by hydrothermal operations can lead to fault reactivation, with the stiffness contrast between the reservoir and confining layers playing a significant role in when and where fault reactivation can occur. Stiffer confining layers lead to reactivation occurring more closely associated with the passage of the cooling front. In contrast, a stiffer reservoir results in greater and more gradual stress changes, making reactivation more closely related to the total volume of cooled rock.

Subsurface schematisations are a crucial geotechnical problem which generally consists of filling substantial gaps in subsurface information from the limited site investigation data available and relying heavily on the engineer’s experience and occasionally geostatistical tools. To address this, schemaGAN, a conditional Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to generate geotechnical subsurface schematisations from site investigation data is introduced. This novel method can learn complex underlying rules that govern the subsurface geometries and anisotropy from a big database of training cross-sections, and can produce subsurface schematisations from Cone Penetration Tests (CPT) in an insignificant timeframe. To test and demonstrate the performance of schemaGAN, a database of 24,000 synthetic geotechnical cross-sections with their corresponding CPT data was created, including spatial variability and gradually spatially varying layers. After training, the effectiveness of schemaGAN was compared against several interpolation methods, and it is seen that schemaGAN outperforms all other methods, with results characterised by clear layer boundaries and an accurate representation of anisotropy within the layers. SchemaGAN’s superior performance was confirmed through a blind survey, and in two real case studies in the Netherlands, where the model demonstrates better predictive accuracy for known CPT data.

Efficient geothermal resource development remains challenging due to inherent geological uncertainty and limited subsurface data. A proof-of-concept for a digital twin for a fluvial geothermal reservoir, similar to the Delft campus geothermal project, is presented. This digital twin has the aim to integrate geological scenario modeling, production simulation, uncertainty analysis, and data assimilation to mitigate operational risks, reduce maintenance costs, extend reservoir longevity, and enhance the overall sustainability of this project. In this contribution, we assess the efficiency of the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ESMDA) for subsurface property inversion of a fluvial geothermal system. First, we developed an efficient method that allows for the swift creation of multiple geological scenarios of channelized reservoir geometries, fully constrained to well information, using Rapid Reservoir Modeling (RRM). Next, we generated an ensemble containing multiple geological realizations for a given scenario representing the geothermal system using stochastic reservoir modelling. For a single scenario and its ensemble of stochastically generated property distributions, heat flow and production rates were simulated using the Delft Advanced Research Terra Simulator (DARTS). One of the ensemble members and its simulated production data were taken as the “truth” (or reference) case. ESMDA was then employed to invert the property distribution within the fluvial channels of all other ensemble members, using the “observed” temperature and pressure data along the injection and production well from the “truth” case. We also consider the presence of a monitoring borehole to analyze how additional monitoring data impacts the convergence of ESMDA. The simulation results of the posterior models demonstrated a significant reduction in root mean square error for temperature and pressure data which align more closely with the “observations” compared to the prior models. This outcome confirms the feasibility of applying ESMDA for data assimilation in fluvial geothermal systems, such as the Delft campus geothermal project.

Evaluating the temporal stability and risk of unsaturated soil slopes during rainfall is essential for early warning and emergency response to landslides. However, limited research has been conducted on the transition timing of sliding mechanisms, instability/failure time and the integration of sliding consequences into quantitative risk assessment. In order to extend the research in this field, the Random Finite Element Method (RFEM) is used in this paper to investigate the influence of spatial variability of hydraulic properties (related to the fundamental parameter porosity) on the temporal stability and risk of soil slopes subject to rainfall. The findings indicate that the advancing speed of the wetting front is more rapidly in zones with low porosity than that in zones with high porosity. As rainfall progresses, the sliding mechanism of the slope shifts from deep sliding to shallow sliding. The homogeneous case tends to underestimate the rise in groundwater levels, leading to an overestimation of slope stability. Hydraulic boundary conditions significantly affect slope stability, making it crucial to consider horizontal (or near the toe of the slope) drainage conditions in practical applications. Additionally, the time of instability/failure predicted in the homogeneous case may be delayed compared to the actual conditions. Both probability of instability/failure and risk increase with continued rainfall. Compared to scenarios where the spatial variability of internal friction angle is not considered, the probability of instability/failure and risk will be higher when the spatial variability of internal friction angle is additionally considered. Risk-based assessment can define the risk levels, reflecting the severity of sliding consequences. Furthermore, the Malin slope failure record from the Chibo region of India is used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The probabilities of slope failure align well with actual observations, and the risk-based assessment provides additional information into the Malin landslide. This paper proposes a general model for studying the performance of heterogeneous slopes subject to rainfall, providing valuable guidance for landslide early warning systems and the scope and timing of emergency measures taken.

Long-term geothermal production is subject to considerable uncertainty due to limited data availability and inherent geological heterogeneity. While observation and data acquisition improve our understanding of the reservoir, they also contribute significantly to project costs. It is essential to identify the most informative observation strategy. In this study, we apply a previously developed scenario-based data assimilation framework that integrates rapid geological modelling, efficient numerical simulation, and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ESMDA) to constrain uncertainties in reservoir properties and production forecasts to a synthetic but geologically realistic fluvial geothermal system and conduct a data worth analysis to evaluate the impact of different observations (production temperature and injection pressure, well temperature and pressure profiles, etc.) on uncertainty reduction. Results show that production temperature and injection pressure alone, though cost-effective, are insufficient to significantly reduce uncertainties in reservoir performance forecasts. In contrast, well temperature and pressure profiles exhibit substantially higher data worth, leading to much better-constrained predictions. Moreover, incorporating a monitoring borehole further constrains uncertainty by capturing subsurface dynamics between the injector and producer. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring pressure and temperature profiles in the wells of a geothermal doublet.

Energy Quay Walls (EQWs) are innovative energy geostructures which exchange thermal energy with both soil and open water while providing a structural function. A full-scale EQW with thermally activated sheet piles was tested, measuring 8.4 m in length along a 1.75m deep canal, with the sheet piles embedded 13m into the underlying soil. Two different length heat exchangers were used: shallow (3 m length) loops primarily extracting thermal energy from the open water, and deep (15 m length) loops extracting energy also from the soil. The shallow loops demonstrated a high heat extraction rate per activated surface area (∼200 W/m2 at 8 °C water temperature, compared with ∼60 W/m2 for the deep loops), with their performance closely linked to the open water temperature. The shallow loops did not require time to restore surrounding temperatures, indicating stable long-term performance, yet can extract the least energy at the coldest time periods. In contrast, the deeper loops exhibit greater stability across varying open water temperatures and achieve the highest total energy extraction per quay wall length (∼900 W/m at 8 °C water temperature, compared with ∼600 W/m for the shallow loops). Realistic operation of the deep loops lowered the soil temperature by ∼2 °C.

Three-dimensional and spatial variability effects on slope failure processes are investigated for an idealised slope stability problem with the random material point method (RMPM). A 45 degree slope is brought to failure by either its own weight or by a combination of its own weight and an additional surface load applied at the crest. The ultimate failure load and potential failure processes are studied for various (heterogeneous) material strength profiles. In 3D, failures tend to spread sideways and backwards. For the slope geometry considered, the resistance to initial and secondary failures in 3D simulations tends to be higher than in 2D simulations, probably due to the additional resistance from the ends of the failure surfaces. The failure behaviour changes when a depth trend in the material strength is introduced. A depth trend in the material strength triggers a flow-like failure process, instead of distinct (approximately) circular failure surfaces which are encountered in a material without a depth trend. The flow-like behaviour causes an expansion in the failure zone in all directions while avoiding (where possible) local strong zones.

The Cutter Soil Mix (CSM) energy wall represents a novel type of energy geostructure, merging the environmental and cost benefits of the CSM technique with ground source heat pump technology. This innovation necessitated comprehensive research to understand the thermal, physical and mechanical characteristics of the material, and optimise energy performance of the CSM energy wall. Laboratory tests and finite element numerical modelling, replicating a full-scale CSM test site in Amstelveen (the Netherlands), were employed to evaluate energy performance under varying demand scenarios: heating only, and combined heating and cooling. Key aspects examined include the influence of horizontal connection pipes on energy extraction and injection, and the impact of U-loop configuration on heat exchange rates over short and long terms. Findings indicate that energy demand significantly affects system performance, with combined heating and cooling demands enhancing long-term heat exchange rates compared to heating-only scenarios. The study demonstrates that non-insulated connection pipes increase overall heat exchange rates, especially under heating-only conditions, while reducing the number of U-loops decreases thermal interaction and enhances energy extraction rates per activated area.

Gas-induced fracturing in liquid-saturated clay-rich materials presents challenges in understanding and predicting fracture behaviour, due to the complex mechanical and transport properties of clays and the compressibility of gas. This paper introduces a novel experimental device for visualising fluid-driven cracks in clays. The device allows for the induction and observation of two-dimensional cracks in clay-rich, low-permeability materials through the injection of gas or water. The experimental setup comprises precision instrumentation for measuring compression forces, displacement, and fluid pressure, along with high-resolution imaging capabilities. Preliminary tests with Helium gas injection into Boom clay samples demonstrate the device's ability to track fracture evolution. This innovative experimental tool offers insights into the mechanisms governing fluid-driven fractures in clay-rich materials and provides a means to validate numerical models.