Despite the advantages of using Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment, adoption in practice has been limited due to the lack of realistic, facility-scale studies. Scaling up from systems to facility-level safety assessments poses challenges in (i) integrating external hazards and their cascading effects, and (ii) resolving non-homogeneity of various technical and human reliability models. The novelty of the study is in formalising risk integration using Bayesian networks, at facility scale, and demonstrating its effectiveness in addressing associated challenges. A Bayesian network-based multi-hazard risk framework is introduced and demonstrated for a nuclear power plant subject to flooding and earthquake hazards, capturing dependencies among hazards and consequences. Individual reliability models – conventionally extraneous to facility-wide risk models – are included as subnetworks by using Bayesian network-based surrogate models for technical systems and a Bayesian networks approach for human reliability modelling. Two approaches are used for subnetwork integration – object-oriented and unified Bayesian networks. The unified approach allows for prediction, diagnostics and inter-causal reasoning since Bayesian inference is bi-directional. Conversely, in the object-oriented approach, diagnostics are limited to within individual subnetworks and as a consequence the model can potentially neglect dependencies between objects. However, the object-oriented model requires only 50 % of the computational memory and consumes less than 25% of the runtime as the unified network, while improving visual clarity of the risk model. The model reveals key insights – for example, variations in operator stress or available response time during a hazard event can result in up to a 77 % change in top event probability – demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing critical relationships in complex, facility-scale risk scenarios. These findings can be used to suitably allocate resources towards risk mitigation and plant safety management.

The anisotropic behaviour of sands, which is associated with their grain-scale microstructural characteristics such as the distribution of voids and the spatial orientation of particles, can lead to significant variations in macro-scale predictions. In this paper, a bounding surface plasticity based anisotropic semi-micromechanical constitutive model is developed, within the multilaminate framework, to describe the effects of fabric on the cyclic behaviour of sands. A novel plastic strain driven semi-micromechanical fabric evolution framework fulfilling the premises of anisotropic critical state theory is proposed. Rather than using a single scalar-valued fabric anisotropic variable, which is the general practise in anisotropic critical state theory based models, independently evolving fabric anisotropic variables are employed at so-called sampling planes. In addition, the semifluidised state concept is utilised at low mean effective stresses to realistically capture post-liquefaction responses, including large shear deformations and accumulative plastic strains during flow liquefaction and cyclic mobility types of behaviour. The procedure for calibrating model parameters is briefly described and the prediction capabilities of the proposed model under drained and undrained monotonic and cyclic loading conditions at different stress states, relative densities and loading orientations are demonstrated by simulating experimental data for Toyoura sand using a single set of parameters.

Three-dimensional and spatial variability effects on slope failure processes are investigated for an idealised slope stability problem with the random material point method (RMPM). A 45 degree slope is brought to failure by either its own weight or by a combination of its own weight and an additional surface load applied at the crest. The ultimate failure load and potential failure processes are studied for various (heterogeneous) material strength profiles. In 3D, failures tend to spread sideways and backwards. For the slope geometry considered, the resistance to initial and secondary failures in 3D simulations tends to be higher than in 2D simulations, probably due to the additional resistance from the ends of the failure surfaces. The failure behaviour changes when a depth trend in the material strength is introduced. A depth trend in the material strength triggers a flow-like failure process, instead of distinct (approximately) circular failure surfaces which are encountered in a material without a depth trend. The flow-like behaviour causes an expansion in the failure zone in all directions while avoiding (where possible) local strong zones.

Geological materials exhibit spatial variability in their properties as a result of their formation. Many studies have focussed on how to characterise this spatial variation by means of the correlation length θ. Such a characterisation has been applied in the geotechnical design of geostructures at numerous sites where cone penetration tests (CPTs) were available, because θ can be relatively easily estimated from this in-situ information. However, the CPTs available at a given site are often part of the initial site investigation, and hence carried out before the application of any ground improvement technique. This raises the question of how (and by how much) the estimated θ is affected by subsequent stages of the construction project and, more specifically, by the application of ground improvement processes intended to alter the initially poor mechanical condition of the in-situ soil. This paper investigates in-situ data from three trial test sites, where CPT data before and after application of vibro-compaction are available. In addition to the expected overall mechanical improvement of the soil, the application of vibro-compaction has a significant impact on soil heterogeneity, with a substantial reduction in the coefficient of variation and θ of the cone tip resistance and sleeve friction.

As the Material Point Method (MPM) uses both a mesh and a point discretisation scheme, the application of boundary conditions is difficult, currently limiting the flexibility of the method. While many boundary condition options have been used in the literature, the accuracy of Neumann boundary condition options has not yet been studied. Four options have here been evaluated for 1D and 2D benchmarks, although none of the options were found to be both accurate and generally applicable in MPM. However, for the generalised interpolation material point method (GIMP), the application of surface tractions on support domain boundaries or on a detected surface are valid options. Large differences between these two accurate options and the application of tractions at surface material points, a method regularly used in the literature, have been observed.

This paper investigates the implementation of a nonlocal regularisation of the material point method to mitigate mesh-dependency issues for the simulation of large deformation problems in brittle soils. The adopted constitutive description corresponds to a simple elastoplastic model with nonlinear strain softening. A number of benchmark simulations, assuming static and dynamic conditions, were performed to show the importance of regularisation, as well as to assess the performance and robustness of the implemented nonlocal approach. The relevance of addressing stress oscillation issues, due to material points crossing element boundaries, is also demonstrated. The obtained results provide relevant insights into brittle materials undergoing large deformations within the MPM framework.

Uncertainty is inevitable in the characterisation of a geotechnical site, especially due to the inherently heterogeneous nature of the ground. In this paper, a method for characterising a subsurface with limited cone penetration test (CPT) data is proposed. The method is based on integrating predictions of CPT parameters with a probabilistic approach for subsoil classification at the CPTs. The predicted stratigraphy is able to capture the spatial variability of soil measured via CPTs and takes account of the uncertainties that arise from transforming CPT measurements into soil units as well as errors in the measurements themselves. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated for a site in the Netherlands. The results show that the proposed approach can identify the most likely classification in the domain with good accuracy. Furthermore, the significance of considering the uncertainties in predicting the most likely classification is illustrated via finite element stability analyses of a slope cut-out in the domain.

Experimental studies show that initial fabric and its evolution under different stress paths greatly influences soil behaviour. Even though different sample preparation methods create different inherent anisotropies and cause different material responses, the same initial fabric structure under different stress paths also results in different material behaviours. In this paper, a simple state-dependent, bounding surface-based elastoplastic constitutive model, which can simulate the anisotropic nature of sands including the effect of principal stress rotation, is described. The model is developed based on a semi-micromechanical concept within the multilaminate framework and, to include the inherent anisotropy of sand, a deviatoric fabric tensor describing the initial microstructure is introduced. In addition, a fabric evolution rule compatible with anisotropic critical state theory is employed to describe the evolving fabric structure and induced anisotropy towards the critical state. In contrast to the classical strain-driven formulation for fabric evolution, a micro-level evolution rule is proposed. This paper presents concise theoretical aspects of the multilaminate framework and the anisotropic elastoplastic constitutive formulation. The model's capability under drained and undrained monotonic loading conditions at different stress states, relative densities and principal stress orientations is demonstrated by simulating experimental data for Toyoura sand.

The stability of six regional dyke cross-sections in the Netherlands was re-assessed using the random finite element method (RFEM), which explicitly accounts for the spatial variability of strength parameters. The RFEM assessments of the cross-sections were shown to result in significantly narrower response distributions than those obtained by ignoring the spatial variability, and therefore would result in more economical designs. Given the complexity of RFEM for applications in daily engineering practice, the results obtained from the re-assessments of the six dyke cross-sections were used to propose partial factors that can be used in practice to achieve the desired reliability levels for regional dykes. When applied in a conventional semi-probabilistic assessment of a dyke cross-section, these partial factors would result in the same level of reliability as would have been obtained by carrying out an RFEM analysis of the same cross-section.

The coupling effect of initial shear stress and thermal cycles on the thermomechanical behaviour of clay concrete and sand-concrete interfaces has been studied. A set of drained monotonic direct shear tests was conducted at the soil-concrete interface level. Samples were initially sheared to half of the material's shear strength and then they were subjected to five heating/cooling cycles before being sheared to failure. The test results showed that the effect of thermal cycles on the shear strength of the materials was negligible, yet shear displacement occurred during application of thermal cycles without an increase in shear stress, confirming the coupling between the shear stress and temperature. In addition, a slight increase of stiffness due to the coupling was observed which diminished with further shearing.

Retrogressive failures occur in slopes consisting of sensitive materials such as snow or quick clay. They can be triggered by a small disturbance at the slope toe, but can cause propagated failure spreading miles away. Understanding the physical mechanism and predicting the retrogressive failure process are particularly important. Previous studies have discussed the failure criteria, the soil properties or the method of numerical modeling of retrogressive slope failure. However, little attention has been paid to the microscopic failure mechanism, especially relating to various possible failure patterns. In this study, multiscale modeling is incorporated to study the physical mechanism of different retrogressive failure patterns, including earth flow, flowslide and spread failure, within a unified framework. Utilizing multiscale analysis, we found that earth flow failure is related to the shear failure of granular materials. In contrast, the development of macroscopic shear bands is accompanied by tensile failure. As shear and tension failures are typical failure mechanisms of frictional and cohesive materials, it is deduced that friction and cohesion effects play key roles in different retrogressive failure patterns. Therefore, the distributions of attractive and repulsive contact forces are explored and a novel parameter η is proposed to quantify the interplay between friction and cohesion. Further analysis proves that η can capture the effect of friction and cohesion and distinguish different retrogressive failure patterns. Finally, a spectrum of retrogressive failures for a granular slope is established, in which the failure mechanism is explained by the changeable dominant effect, that is, frictional or cohesive in soil.

Soil liquefaction is investigated considering a saturated soil deposit and by implementing standard techniques of random field theory to distribute initial void ratio values and assess liquefaction risk. The soil domain is represented in a 2-dimensional (2D) random finite element model for the dynamic analysis of coupled behavior. Multiple Monte Carlo realizations are subjected to a base acceleration, while cyclic and small strain soil behaviours are achieved through a hypoplastic constitutive model. This investigation demonstrates that 2D stochastic simulations converge to 2D deterministic simulations when small standard deviations and/or small scales of fluctuation are used. However, large standard deviations combined with relatively large scales of fluctuation may cause significant uncertainty in the response of the soil deposit. Finally, common techniques employed to assess soil liquefaction are evaluated based on the results of the deterministic and random field analyses.