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T. Keviczky

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Unified uncertainty set representation and mitigating conservatism

Journal article (2026) - Yun Li, Neil Yorke-Smith, Tamas Keviczky
Constructing uncertainty sets as unions of multiple subsets has emerged as an effective approach for creating compact and flexible uncertainty representations in data-driven robust optimization (RO). This paper focuses on two separate research questions. The first concerns the computational challenge in applying these uncertainty sets in RO-based predictive control. To address this, a monolithic mixed-integer representation of the uncertainty set is proposed to uniformly describe the union of multiple subsets, enabling the computation of the worst-case uncertainty scenario across all subsets within a single mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem. The second research question focuses on mitigating the conservatism of conventional RO formulations by leveraging the structure of the uncertainty set. To achieve this, a novel objective function is proposed to exploit the uncertainty set structure and integrate the existing RO and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulations, yielding less conservative solutions than conventional RO formulations, while avoiding the high-dimensional continuous uncertainty distributions and the high computational burden typically associated with existing DRO formulations. Given the proposed formulations, numerically efficient computation methods based on column-and-constraint generation (CCG) are also developed. Extensive simulations across three case studies are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed schemes. ...

Geometric Interpretation and Tractable Algorithms

This survey reviews recent developments in fault diagnosis for both linear and nonlinear dynamical systems, covering model-based and data-driven approaches as well as passive and active detection and estimation methods. A central focus is placed on the geometric interpretation of diagnosis filters and their connection to the concept of behavioral sets, providing an intuitive view of their performance. We also review optimization-based techniques that enhance the robustness of linear filters when applied to nonlinear or uncertain systems. Furthermore, we point out recent progress in active fault diagnosis, where input design plays a key role in improving detectability and estimation accuracy. To bridge theory and practice, we include a set of real-world industrial applications that demonstrate the implementation and effectiveness of these methods in realistic settings. ...
We study the problem of fault isolation in linear systems with actuator and sensor faults within a data-driven framework. We propose a nullspace-based filter that uses solely fault-free input-output data collected under process and measurement noises. By reparameterizing the problem within a behavioral framework, we achieve a direct fault isolation filter design that is independent of any explicit system model. The underlying classification problem is approached from a geometric perspective, enabling a characterization of mutual fault discernibility in terms of fundamental system properties given a noise-free setting. In addition, the provided conditions can be evaluated using only the available data. Finally, a simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. ...
Journal article (2025) - Ioannis Panagopoulos, Robert D. Mcallister, Simon Van Mourik, Tamás Keviczky
This paper introduces a cascaded climate control framework in which a primary economic model predictive controller (EMPC) determines climate bounds for a secondary rule-based controller, based on industrial practice. The proposed controller may therefore serve as a blueprint for control design for existing greenhouse climate control systems while retaining the reliability and safety of legacy systems. The framework's performance is evaluated through simulations of a lettuce greenhouse model and compared against a state-of-the-art EMPC that controls all actuators directly. The results show that the proposed approach achieves comparable performance to the ideal state-of-the-art EMPC, demonstrating negligible performance loss from retaining rule-based control in the climate control system. ...

Reviewing research, market and societal trends

Research into the impact of innovative sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations is crucial to diversifying, scaling up, and accelerating the sustainable energy transition. Although there is vast research into sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations, research literature offers a fragmented collection of findings. A coherent overview of themes and insights regarding the transformative impact of innovative sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations on sustainable energy systems from the past, present, and near future is lacking and necessary to increase experiments and demonstrations' impact on the sustainable energy transition. The research in this study fills this knowledge gap by providing such an overview and yields novel insights into the organized function and impact of experiments and demonstrations. It spans a broad spectrum of sustainable energy technologies, the empirical domains where these are invented, developed and applied, and the stakeholders involved. The overview is the outcome of a Delphi study in which the insights of 47 international scientific research experts in sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations are bundled and explained. This study presents a thematic overview of the significant insights regarding past and current sustainable energy experiments and demonstrations and outlines a research agenda for the future. Policymakers, practitioners, and scientists can leverage this to inform their sustainable energy policies, business strategies, and research programs. ...
This paper addresses the problem of estimating multiplicative fault signals in linear time-invariant systems by processing its input and output variables, as well as designing an input signal to maximize the accuracy of such estimates. The proposed real-time fault estimator is based on a residual generator used for fault detection and a multiple-output regressor generator, which feed a moving-horizon linear regression that estimates the parameter changes. Asymptotic performance guarantees are provided in the presence of noise. Motivated by the performance bounds, an optimal input design problem is formulated, for which we provide efficient algorithms and optimality bounds. Numerical examples demonstrate the efficacy of our approach and the importance of the optimal input design for accurate fault estimation. ...
Journal article (2025) - Y. Li, Jicheng Shi, Colin N. Jones, N. Yorke-Smith, T. Keviczky
Noise pollution from heat pumps (HPs) has been an emerging concern to their broader adoption, especially in densely populated areas. This paper explores a model predictive control (MPC) approach for climate control of buildings, aimed at minimizing the noise nuisance generated by HPs. By exploiting a piecewise linear approximation of HP noise patterns and assuming linear building thermal dynamics, the proposed design can be generalized to handle various HP acoustic patterns with mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Additionally, two computationally efficient options for defining the noise cost function in the proposed MPC design are discussed. Numerical experiments on a high-fidelity building simulator are performed to demonstrate the viability and effectiveness of the proposed design. Simulation results show that minimizing the excess of HP noise over ambient noise is effective in mitigating the HP noise nuisance. Further, compared with the conventional MPC-based building climate control scheme, the proposed approach can effectively reduce the HP noise pollution with only a minor energy cost increase. ...
Conference paper (2025) - Max Sibeijn, Mohammad Khosravi, Tamás Keviczky
In this paper, we use dual dynamic programming to address the myopic nature of MPC for scheduling of district heating networks by designing value functions that can approximate the effects of time-varying elements on the objective function beyond the initial prediction horizon. To this end, we formulate the control problem as a two-level MPC. More precisely, in the first-level, we consider a short-horizon nonlinear MPC equipped with a terminal cost approximating the value function. Subsequently, a long-horizon linear MPC is solved in the second-level to establish a lower bound on the terminal cost function from the first-level, thereby improving the value function approximation. Specifically, we consider scheduling of thermal and hydraulic components within district heating networks. Our numerical example demonstrates that our method can anticipate demand variations beyond the prediction horizon while maintaining computational efficiency. ...
Journal article (2025) - Max Sibeijn, Saeed Ahmed, Mohammad Khosravi, Tamas Keviczky
In this article, we propose an economic nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) algorithm for district heating networks (DHNs). The proposed method features prosumers, multiple producers, and storage systems, which are essential components of 4th-generation DHNs. These networks are characterized by their ability to optimize their operations, aiming to reduce supply temperatures, accommodate distributed heat sources, and leverage the flexibility provided by thermal inertia and storage—each crucial for achieving a fossil-fuel-free energy supply. Developing a smart energy management system to accomplish these goals requires detailed models of highly complex nonlinear systems and computational algorithms able to handle large-scale optimization problems. To address this, we introduce a graph-based optimization-oriented model that efficiently integrates distributed producers, prosumers, storage buffers, and bidirectional pipe flows, such that it can be implemented in a real-time MPC setting. Furthermore, we conducted several numerical experiments to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms in closed loop. Our findings demonstrate that the MPC methods achieved up to 9% cost improvement over traditional rule-based controllers while better maintaining system constraints. ...
Conference paper (2024) - Weihong Tang, Yun Li, Shalika Walker, Tamas Keviczky
Heat pump and thermal energy storage (HPTES) systems, which are widely utilized in modern buildings for providing domestic hot water, contribute to a large share of household electricity consumption. With the increasing integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into modern power grids, demand-side management (DSM) becomes crucial for balancing power generation and consumption by adjusting end users' power consumption. This paper explores an energy flexible Model Predictive Control (MPC) design for a class of HPTES systems to facilitate demand-side management. The proposed DSM strategy comprises two key components: i) flexibility assessment, and ii) flexibility exploitation. Firstly, for flexibility assessment, a tailored MPC formulation, supplemented by a set of auxiliary linear constraints, is developed to quantitatively assess the flexibility potential inherent in HPTES systems. Subsequently, in flexibility exploitation, the energy flexibility is effectively harnessed in response to feasible demand response (DR) requests, which can be formulated as a standard mixed-integer MPC problem. Numerical experiments, based on a real-world HPTES installation, are conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed design. ...
Journal article (2024) - Yanggu Zheng, Barys Shyrokau, Tamas Keviczky
The acceptance of automated driving is under the potential threat of motion sickness. It hinders the passengers' willingness to perform secondary activities. In order to mitigate motion sickness in automated vehicles, we propose an optimization-based motion planning algorithm that minimizes the distribution of acceleration energy within the frequency range that is found to be the most nauseogenic. The algorithm is formulated into integral and receding-horizon variants and compared with a commonly used alternative approach aiming to minimize accelerations in general. The proposed approach can reduce frequency-weighted acceleration by up to 11.3% compared with not considering the frequency sensitivity for the price of reduced overall acceleration comfort. Our simulation studies also reveal a loss of performance by the receding-horizon approach over the integral approach when varying the preview time and nominal sampling time. The computation time of the receding-horizon planner is around or below the real-time threshold when using a longer sampling time but without causing significant performance loss. We also present the results of experiments conducted to measure the performance of human drivers on a public road section that the simulated scenario is actually based on. The proposed method can achieve a 19% improvement in general acceleration comfort or a 32% reduction in squared motion sickness dose value over the best-performing participant. The results demonstrate considerable potential for improving motion comfort and mitigating motion sickness using our approach in automated vehicles. ...
Conference paper (2024) - Yun Li, Neil Yorke-Smith, Tamas Keviczky
Robust Optimal Control (ROC) with adjustable uncertainties has proven to be effective in addressing critical challenges within modern energy networks, especially the reserve and provision problem. However, prior research on ROC with adjustable uncertainties has predominantly focused on the scenario of uncertainties modeled as continuous variables. In this paper, we explore ROC with binary adjustable uncertainties, where the uncertainties are modeled by binary decision variables, marking the first investigation of its kind. To tackle this new challenge, firstly we introduce a metric designed to quantitatively measure the extent of binary adjustable uncertainties. Then, to balance computational tractability and adaptability, we restrict control policies to be affine functions with respect to uncertainties, and propose a general design framework for ROC with binary adjustable uncertainties. To address the inherent computational demands of the original ROC problem, especially in large-scale applications, we employ strong duality (SD) and big-M-based reformulations to create a scalable and computationally efficient Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) formulation. Numerical simulations are conducted to showcase the performance of our proposed approach, demonstrating its applicability and effectiveness in handling binary adjustable uncertainties within the context of modern energy networks. ...
Conference paper (2024) - Max Sibeijn, Saeed Ahmed, Mohammad Khosravi, Tamas Keviczky
The inherently nonlinear, large-scale, and time-varying nature of district heating systems pose significant challenges from a control perspective. In this paper, we address these challenges by applying an economic MPC. Economic MPC is a dynamic real-time optimization method, enabling both optimal planning and stability of the closed-loop system. Our strategy constitutes several steps. First, we introduce a discrete-time modular framework for the district heating system, establishing its strict dissipativity with respect to a desired, potentially time-varying, equilibrium. We identify a set of meaningful objective functions for the district heating systems, preserving this property. Second, we show how strict dissipativity implies the turnpike property, which, in turn, guarantees approximate optimality, practical stability, and recursive feasibility for the EMPC closed-loop. Finally, we provide numerical simulations to demonstrate the effectiveness of our work. ...
This paper considers the problem of fault estimation in linear time-invariant systems when actuators are subject to unknown additive faults. A data-driven approach is proposed to design an inverse-system-based filter for reconstructing fault signals when the underlying fault subsystem can be either a minimum phase or non-minimum phase system. Unlike traditional two-step data-driven methods in the literature, the proposed method directly computes the filter parameters from input-output data to avoid the propagation of identification errors through an inverse operation into the fault estimates, which is the case in state-of-the-art filter designs. Furthermore, regarding out-of-sample performance of the filter, a kernel-based regularization is exploited to not only reduce the model complexity but also enable the design scheme to take advantage of available prior knowledge on the underlying system behavior. This knowledge can be incorporated into basis functions, promoting the desired solution to the optimization problem. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation study is conducted, demonstrating a notable reduction in estimation error compared to state-of-the-art methods. ...
Journal article (2024) - Ilham Naharudinsyah, Rene Delfos, Tamas Keviczky
Control systems are essential to support the use of building structures as short-term thermal energy storage (TES). Due to modeling and forecast imperfections, the controller must be able to deal with uncertainties. This paper proposes a robust model predictive controller (MPC) with a new uncertainty set construction technique to regulate the heat supply in a building envelope. We extend the Support Vector Clustering-based set construction technique to estimate modeling and forecast uncertainty sets. Subsequently, we integrate the sets into a Min-Max MPC framework to ensure robust feasibility by tightening the constraints. The resulting controller successfully deals with modeling and forecast uncertainties. The quality of the presented framework is compared with a nominal MPC and a robust MPC with different uncertainty set estimates. On the basis of a numerical simulation, we demonstrate that the proposed controller successfully maintains the room temperature within the comfort limits. The result also shows that our MPC is less conservative than the controller designed using a box-shaped non-falsified parametric uncertainty set. ...
Journal article (2024) - Alexander Berndt, Niels Van Duijkeren, Luigi Palmieri, Alexander Kleiner, T. Keviczky
The trajectory planning for a fleet of automated guided vehicles (AGVs) on a roadmap is commonly referred to as the multi-agent path finding (MAPF) problem, the solution to which dictates each AGV's spatial and temporal location until it reaches its goal without collision. When executing MAPF plans in dynamic workspaces, AGVs can be frequently delayed, e.g., due to encounters with humans or third-party vehicles. If the remainder of the AGVs keeps following their individual plans, synchrony of the fleet is lost and some AGVs may pass through roadmap intersections in a different order than originally planned. Although this could reduce the cumulative route completion time of the AGVs, generally, a change in the original ordering can cause conflicts, such as deadlocks. In practice, synchrony is therefore often enforced by using a MAPF execution policy employing, e.g., an action dependency graph (ADG) to maintain ordering. To safely re-order without introducing deadlocks, we present the concept of the switchable action dependency graph (SADG). Using the SADG, we formulate a comparatively low-dimensional mixed-integer linear program that repeatedly re-orders AGVs in a recursively feasible manner, thus maintaining deadlock-free guarantees, while dynamically minimizing the cumulative route completion time of all AGVs. Various simulations validate the efficiency of our approach when compared to the original ADG method as well as robust MAPF solution approaches. ...
Journal article (2024) - Yun Li, Neil Yorke-Smith, Tamas Keviczky
The way how the uncertainties are represented by sets plays a vital role in the performance of robust optimization (RO). This paper presents a novel approach leveraging machine learning (ML) techniques to construct data-driven uncertainty sets from historical uncertainty data for RO problems. The proposed method integrates Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and Principle Component Analysis (PCA) systematically to eliminate the influence of uncertainty scenarios with low occurrence probability and generate a nonconvex uncertainty set that is a union of multiple basic subsets (box or ellipsoid) without sacrificing its computational tractability. In addition to presenting a comprehensive algorithm for uncertainty set development, this paper offers detailed guidelines for parameter tuning and performance analysis. By harnessing the well-established ML packages scikit-learn, a Python-based toolkit for implementing the proposed approach is also provided. Furthermore, a computationally efficient solution for a two-stage linear RO problem with the proposed data-driven uncertainty set is derived, alongside establishing a probabilistic guarantee of constraint satisfaction for out-of-sample uncertainties. Extensive numerical experiments, conducted on both synthetic and real-world datasets as well as an optimization-based control problem, are performed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology. ...
This work presents a method for multi-robot coordination based on a novel distributed nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) formulation for trajectory optimization and its modified version to mitigate the effects of packet losses and delays in the communication among the robots. Our algorithms consider that each robot is equipped with an onboard computation unit to solve a local control problem and communicate with neighboring autonomous robots via a wireless network. The difference between the two proposed methods is in the way the robots exchange information to coordinate. The information exchange can occur in a following: 1) synchronous or 2) asynchronous fashion. By relying on the theory of the nonconvex alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), we show that the proposed solutions converge to a (local) solution of the centralized problem. For both algorithms, the communication exchange preserves the safety of the robots; that is, collisions with neighboring autonomous robots are prevented. The proposed approaches can be applied to various multi-robot scenarios and robot models. In this work, we assess our methods, both in simulation and with experiments, for the coordination of a team of autonomous vehicles in the following: 1) an unsupervised intersection crossing and 2) the platooning scenarios. ...
Conference paper (2023) - Yun Li, Neil Yorke-Smith, Tamas Keviczky
Towards integrating renewable electricity generation sources into the grid, an important facilitator is the energy flexibility provided by buildings' thermal inertia. Most of the existing research follows a single-step price- or incentive-based scheme for unlocking the flexibility potential of buildings. In contrast, this paper proposes a novel two-step design approach for better harnessing buildings' energy flexibility. In a first step, a robust optimization model is formulated for assessing the energy flexibility of buildings in the presence of uncertain predictions of external conditions, such as ambient temperature, solar irradiation, etc. In a second step, energy flexibility is activated in response to a feasible demand response (DR) request from grid operators without violating indoor temperature constraints, even in the presence of uncertain external conditions. The proposed approach is tested on a high-fidelity Modelica simulator to evaluate its effectiveness. Simulation results show that, compared with price-based demand-side management, the proposed approach achieves greater energy reduction during peak hours. ...