Greenhouse horticulture is a key sector in the Netherlands, significantly contributing to the economy and society but also heavily reliant on natural gas, leading to substantial CO2 emissions. The sector, in partnership with the government, aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2040 as part of the Energy Transition Covenant for Greenhouse Horticulture 2022-2030. To discourage natural gas use, particularly in combined heat and power (CHP) systems, policymakers have restructured energy taxation and implemented a flat CO2 levy. Additionally, increased network charges are anticipated due to infrastructure expansion, while electricity and gas prices are expected to decline over the next decade. The transition also depends on factors like Dutch sustainable energy system advancements, third-party heat and electricity supply, and consumer preference for climate-neutral products.

In this master's thesis, part of the TU Delft DEMOSES project, a unit commitment (UC) model was developed to analyse the evolving energy landscape of the Dutch horticultural sector and its impact on energy management practices, emissions, and expenses until 2030. The research addresses four sub-questions focusing on trends in energy utilisation, the effects of regulations and costs, the evolution of emissions and financial dynamics, and the impact of energy price developments on the sector. Using multi-integer linear programming, the UC model simulates the dynamics of electricity, heat, and CO2 within the greenhouse industry, capturing system intricacies and exploring various scenarios. Inputs include demand, generation asset specifications, and national energy prices.

Key findings indicate that by 2030, revised energy taxes will shift incentives away from self-generated electricity from CHP systems, resulting in higher costs and only modest emission reductions without renewable energy sources. With renewable availability, substantial emission reductions are possible but at significantly increased costs. The most cost-effective scenario combines geothermal and waste heat with CHP generation, balancing costs and emissions reductions. However, high network charges could undermine regulatory efforts to promote sustainable thermal generation, emphasising the need for effective capacity management.

Geothermal energy is predicted to become the primary sustainable thermal source in the horticultural sector by 2030, though its economic advantage over CHP systems remains limited under current fiscal policies. The research suggests horticulturists will transition from electricity suppliers to balanced electricity traders, integrating both renewable and conventional thermal sources. This transition enhances sustainability but increases net costs due to reduced revenue from less frequent CHP operation.

Recommendations highlight the necessity of policy intervention to manage network charges and incentivise sustainable energy adoption. Revising pricing mechanisms and incorporating subsidies can mitigate costs and promote electric technologies for thermal generation. Future research should explore diverse scenarios for geothermal and waste heat availability, refine models for optimal inclusion, and investigate various tax regimes to enhance economic viability. Horticulturists should invest in waste heat and geothermal energy while maintaining CHP systems for load-following needs and managing heat pump capacity within contracted capacities to mitigate costs.