The Netherlands is undergoing a major energy transition, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030 and to reach full climate neutrality by 2050. Hydrogen is expected to play a key role in this transition, particularly in industrial sectors where electrification is technically challenging or economically unviable. In support of this goal, the Dutch government is investing in large-scale hydrogen production and the phased development of a national hydrogen backbone, led by HyNetwork Services. This network will connect five major industrial clusters by 2033. However, it does not extend to the many medium-sized industrial sites dispersed across the country, collectively referred to as Cluster 6. These firms, active in energy-intensive sectors such as food processing, chemicals, glass, and metals, face significant barriers to adopting hydrogen, including high connection costs and limited infrastructure access. Additionally, many of these companies have high energy demands and rely on processes that are difficult to electrify. Combined with widespread congestion on the electricity grid, these factors severely limit their ability to transition away from fossil fuels, leaving few viable pathways for decarbonization.

This thesis explores the coordination challenge that arises from this situation. Medium-sized firms cannot commit to hydrogen without reliable infrastructure, while infrastructure providers are reluctant to invest without visible, concentrated demand. To examine how different planning strategies can address this deadlock, the thesis develops an agent-based model that simulates interactions between a central infrastructure planner and spatially distributed industrial users. The planner combines the roles of Hydrogen Distribution Network Operator and Distribution System Operator and responds to firm-level adoption decisions under real-world constraints such as investment cycles, capacity limitations, and policy changes. The model evaluates three rollout strategies: a reactive approach in which infrastructure follows demand, a proactive approach in which infrastructure anticipates demand, and a delay scenario in which no infrastructure is built. Outcomes are assessed using a Societal Net Present Value metric that captures financial costs, emissions reductions, and avoided grid reinforcements.

The simulation results show that proactive infrastructure rollout significantly improves hydrogen adoption and societal outcomes. Even modest anticipatory investments, when timed to align with firms’ decision-making cycles, help overcome coordination failures, accelerate emissions reductions, and increase infrastructure efficiency. In contrast, reactive strategies lead to fragmented, delayed development and fail to unlock widespread decarbonization. The findings also highlight the importance of policy design: hydrogen subsidies are most effective when paired with visible infrastructure, while uncoordinated electricity subsidies can fragment adoption and reduce system coherence.

The thesis concludes that enabling the hydrogen transition for medium-sized industry requires a shift from reactive to anticipatory planning. This requires urgently defining the role and responsibilities of future Hydrogen Distribution Network Operators (HDNOs), along with granting them a clear mandate to invest ahead of demand. Cost recovery mechanisms and supportive regulatory frameworks must enable timely, coordinated rollout. Only by aligning infrastructure deployment with the decarbonization timelines of medium-sized industry can regions like Cluster 6 be fully integrated into the energy transition and contribute meaningfully to national climate targets.