Statistical testing procedures employed in geodetic quality control often consist of two steps: detection and identification. In the detection step, the null hypothesis (working model) ℋ₀ undergoes a validity check. If the outcome of the detection step is the rejection of ℋ₀, identification of potential source of model error is exercised through a search among the specified alternative hypotheses. The testing performance is thus not only led by its ability to detect biases but to correctly identify them as well. The detection capability of a testing regime is usually assessed by its Minimal Detectable Bias (MDB) given a certain correct detection probability. The information provided by the MDB only concerns correct detection and not correct identification. The testing identification performance should be evaluated by its Minimal Identifiable Bias (MIB) given a certain correct identification probability. In this contribution, we demonstrate the difference between MDB and MIB. It is hereby highlighted that a small MDB (or a high probability of correct detection) does not necessarily imply a small MIB (or a high probability of correct identification). The factors driving the difference between detection and identification performance are illustrated using a simple example. Our analysis is then continued in the framework of deformation monitoring.

In this contribution, we propose a method for statistically evaluating the risk in a deformation monitoring system. When the structure under monitoring moves beyond tolerance, the monitor system should issue an alert. Only a very small probability is acceptable of the system telling us that no change beyond a critical threshold has taken place, while in reality it has. This probability is referred to as integrity risk. We provide a formulation of integrity risk where the interaction between estimation and testing is taken into account, implying the use of conditional probabilities. In doing so, we assumed different scenarios with the alerts being dependent on both the identified hypothesis and the threat that the estimated size of deformations entails. It is hereby highlighted that a correct risk evaluation requires estimation and testing being considered together, as they are typically intimately linked. In practice, one may, however, find it simpler computation-wise to neglect the estimation–testing link. For this case, we provide an approximation of the integrity risk. This approximation may provide a too optimistic or pessimistic description of the integrity risk depending on the testing procedure and tolerances of the structure at hand. Monitoring systems, besides issuing timely alerts, are also required to provide threat estimates together with their corresponding probabilistic properties. As the testing outcome determines how the threat gets estimated, the threat estimator will then inherit the statistical properties of both estimation and testing. We derive the threat estimator b¯ _j and its probability density function, taking the contributions from combined estimation and testing into account. It is highlighted that although the threat estimator under the identified hypothesis H_j, i.e., b^ _j, is normally distributed, the estimator b¯ _j is not. It is explained that working with b^ _j instead of b¯ _j, thus ignoring the estimation–testing link, may provide a too optimistic description of the threat estimator’s quality. The presented method is illustrated by means of two simple deformation examples.

In safety-critical applications, deformation monitoring systems are required to issue timely alerts when a deformation beyond a critical threshold occurs. Only a very small probability of failing to issue an alert when in fact one should have been given, is acceptable. This probability is referred to as integrity risk. In this contribution, we show how to evaluate this risk, thereby taking the intimate link between testing and estimation into account. Using a simple example, the basic integrity components of deformation monitoring are introduced and illustrated. The integrity risk is then formulated for the generalized case where multiple-hypothesis testing is involved. As monitoring systems, in addition to issuing timely alerts, are also required to provide deformation estimates, it is also crucial to assess their confidence levels. In doing so, the statistical testing, that preceded the estimation of the deformation parameters, needs to be accounted for. As this is not the customary procedure followed in practice, we show how the combined estimation and testing can be probabilistically accounted for, and thereby demonstrate that the customary practice can give a too optimistic outcome of the stated confidence levels. The presented methodology is worked out and numerically illustrated by means of two deformation examples.

In this contribution we analyze the single-frequency L5 positioning capabilities of the two regional satellite navigation systems IRNSS and QZSS, stand alone as well as combined. The positioning analysis is done for two different baselines, having a mix of receivers, providing ambiguity-float and ambiguity-fixed positioning for models with and without zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) estimation. The analyses include a precision analysis of the observed signals, as well as an analysis of the ambiguity resolution performance. This is done for both the multipath-uncorrected case as well as the multipath-mitigated case. It is shown that although single-system positioning performance is rather poor, the ZTD-fixed, single-epoch ambiguity success rates (ASRs) are close to 100% when the two regional systems are combined, thus providing mm-to-cm level precision for instantaneous ambiguity-fixed positioning. When the ZTD is estimated as well, only a few additional epochs are needed to get the ASRs close to 100%.

As parameter estimation and statistical testing are often intimately linked in the processing of observational data, the uncertainties involved in both estimation and testing need to be properly propagated into the final results produced. This necessitates the use of conditional distributions when evaluating the quality of the resulting estimator. As the conditioning should be on the identified hypothesis as well as on the corresponding testing outcome, omission of the latter will result in an incorrect description of the estimator’s distribution. In this contribution, we analyse the impact this omission or approximation has on the considered distribution of the estimator and its integrity risk. For a relatively simple observational model it is mathematically proven that the rigorous integrity risk exceeds the approximation for the contributions under the null hypothesis, which typically has a much larger probability of occurrence than an alternative. Actual GNSS-based positioning examples confirm this finding. Overall we observe a tendency of the approximate integrity risk being smaller than the rigorous one. The approximate approach may, therefore, provide a too optimistic description of the integrity risk and thereby not sufficiently safeguard against possibly hazardous situations. We, therefore, strongly recommend the use of the rigorous approach to evaluate the integrity risk, as underestimating the integrity risk in practice, and also the risk to do so, cannot be acceptable particularly in critical and safety-of-life applications.

In this contribution, we present and analyze datasnooping in the context of the DIA method. As the DIA method for the detection, identification and adaptation of mismodelling errors is concerned with estimation and testing, it is the combination of both that needs to be considered. This combination is rigorously captured by the DIA estimator. We discuss and analyze the DIA-datasnooping decision probabilities and the construction of the corresponding partitioning of misclosure space. We also investigate the circumstances under which two or more hypotheses are nonseparable in the identification step. By means of a theorem on the equivalence between the nonseparability of hypotheses and the inestimability of parameters, we demonstrate that one can forget about adapting the parameter vector for hypotheses that are nonseparable. However, as this concerns the complete vector and not necessarily functions of it, we also show that parameter functions may exist for which adaptation is still possible. It is shown how this adaptation looks like and how it changes the structure of the DIA estimator. To demonstrate the performance of the various elements of DIA-datasnooping, we apply the theory to some selected examples. We analyze how geometry changes in the measurement setup affect the testing procedure, by studying their partitioning of misclosure space, the decision probabilities and the minimal detectable and identifiable biases. The difference between these two minimal biases is highlighted by showing the difference between their corresponding contributing factors. We also show that if two alternative hypotheses, say (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.), are nonseparable, the testing procedure may have different levels of sensitivity to (Formula presented.)-biases compared to the same (Formula presented.)-biases.

The Japanese Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS) has recently (October 2017) reached its first 4-satellite constellation. In this contribution, the standalone performance of this 4-satellite QZSS constellation is assessed by means of its triple-frequency (L1 + L2 + L5) real-time kinematic (RTK) integer ambiguity resolution and precise positioning capabilities. Our analyses are carried out for data collected in Perth, Australia, and include a study of the noise characteristics of the QZSS code and phase data, particularly concerning their precision, time correlation and multipath. Our results show that while the phase observations on different frequencies are of similar precision, the code observations on different frequencies show considerably different precisions and can be ordered, from high to low, as L5, L2 and L1. As to positioning and ambiguity resolution, we demonstrate that the Position Dilution Of Precision (PDOP) and the Ambiguity Dilution Of Precision (ADOP) exhibit complementary characteristics, both of which are important for predicting precise positioning capabilities. We show that despite the large PDOPs, the ADOPs are sufficiently small to indicate (almost) instantaneous successful ambiguity resolution. This is confirmed by our empirical data analyses, demonstrating that instantaneous ambiguity resolution is feasible, despite the relatively poor 4-satellite receiver-to-satellite positioning geometry over Australia, thus showing that already now centimeter-level stand-alone QZSS positioning is possible with the current 4-satellite constellation (February–March 2018).