TV
T.T.C. Verhulst
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Effects of Climate Change on Weather-Induced Loads on Buildings
Implications for Characteristic Values of Precipitation, Snow, and Wind Loads in the Netherlands
This research investigated how climate change may affect characteristic values for precipitation, snow, and wind loads on structures in the Netherlands and assessed the implications for structural design. Historical observations from KNMI weather stations were analysed and compared with the current characteristic values prescribed in the Dutch National Annexes. Future changes were assessed using the KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios.
For precipitation, recent Dutch depth-duration-frequency studies indicate that the current 50-year return level for 5-minute precipitation events is already approximately 20% higher than the value prescribed in the Dutch National Annex. The climate projections indicate a further increase in extreme precipitation, resulting in an estimated factor of change of approximately 1.06 for a 50-year return level under 1.1°C global warming relative to the 1991-2020 reference period. Combined, these findings imply that emergency drainage widths may need to increase by approximately 27% compared with current practice.
Historical snow depth observations showed decreasing trends in annual maximum snow depth, while estimated 50-year return levels were generally lower than the current characteristic ground snow load. Although quantitative snow projections are unavailable, multiple climate indicators consistently suggest that conditions favourable for snowfall and persistent snow cover will become less frequent under future climate change.
For wind, estimated 50-year return levels of the 10-minute mean wind velocity were generally comparable to or lower than the values prescribed in the Dutch National Annex. Furthermore, the KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios project only minor changes in extreme wind velocities relative to the associated model uncertainty, indicating no clear need to revise the current characteristic wind loads. ...
For precipitation, recent Dutch depth-duration-frequency studies indicate that the current 50-year return level for 5-minute precipitation events is already approximately 20% higher than the value prescribed in the Dutch National Annex. The climate projections indicate a further increase in extreme precipitation, resulting in an estimated factor of change of approximately 1.06 for a 50-year return level under 1.1°C global warming relative to the 1991-2020 reference period. Combined, these findings imply that emergency drainage widths may need to increase by approximately 27% compared with current practice.
Historical snow depth observations showed decreasing trends in annual maximum snow depth, while estimated 50-year return levels were generally lower than the current characteristic ground snow load. Although quantitative snow projections are unavailable, multiple climate indicators consistently suggest that conditions favourable for snowfall and persistent snow cover will become less frequent under future climate change.
For wind, estimated 50-year return levels of the 10-minute mean wind velocity were generally comparable to or lower than the values prescribed in the Dutch National Annex. Furthermore, the KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios project only minor changes in extreme wind velocities relative to the associated model uncertainty, indicating no clear need to revise the current characteristic wind loads. ...
This research investigated how climate change may affect characteristic values for precipitation, snow, and wind loads on structures in the Netherlands and assessed the implications for structural design. Historical observations from KNMI weather stations were analysed and compared with the current characteristic values prescribed in the Dutch National Annexes. Future changes were assessed using the KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios.
For precipitation, recent Dutch depth-duration-frequency studies indicate that the current 50-year return level for 5-minute precipitation events is already approximately 20% higher than the value prescribed in the Dutch National Annex. The climate projections indicate a further increase in extreme precipitation, resulting in an estimated factor of change of approximately 1.06 for a 50-year return level under 1.1°C global warming relative to the 1991-2020 reference period. Combined, these findings imply that emergency drainage widths may need to increase by approximately 27% compared with current practice.
Historical snow depth observations showed decreasing trends in annual maximum snow depth, while estimated 50-year return levels were generally lower than the current characteristic ground snow load. Although quantitative snow projections are unavailable, multiple climate indicators consistently suggest that conditions favourable for snowfall and persistent snow cover will become less frequent under future climate change.
For wind, estimated 50-year return levels of the 10-minute mean wind velocity were generally comparable to or lower than the values prescribed in the Dutch National Annex. Furthermore, the KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios project only minor changes in extreme wind velocities relative to the associated model uncertainty, indicating no clear need to revise the current characteristic wind loads.
For precipitation, recent Dutch depth-duration-frequency studies indicate that the current 50-year return level for 5-minute precipitation events is already approximately 20% higher than the value prescribed in the Dutch National Annex. The climate projections indicate a further increase in extreme precipitation, resulting in an estimated factor of change of approximately 1.06 for a 50-year return level under 1.1°C global warming relative to the 1991-2020 reference period. Combined, these findings imply that emergency drainage widths may need to increase by approximately 27% compared with current practice.
Historical snow depth observations showed decreasing trends in annual maximum snow depth, while estimated 50-year return levels were generally lower than the current characteristic ground snow load. Although quantitative snow projections are unavailable, multiple climate indicators consistently suggest that conditions favourable for snowfall and persistent snow cover will become less frequent under future climate change.
For wind, estimated 50-year return levels of the 10-minute mean wind velocity were generally comparable to or lower than the values prescribed in the Dutch National Annex. Furthermore, the KNMI'23 Climate Scenarios project only minor changes in extreme wind velocities relative to the associated model uncertainty, indicating no clear need to revise the current characteristic wind loads.