The maritime industry has long relied on oils and heavy fuels as main energy carriers. The shipping sector still accounts for an important 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. On top of this, current industry fuels contain high levels of sulfur and release nitrogen oxides upon combustion, which both can be extremely harmful to local environments and ecosystems. The largest body in marine regulation; The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set a goal in reducing total industry emissions to 50% relative to 2008 levels. Additionally,the European Union has passed a series of regulations and targets relating to shipping. However, most of the regulations passed are not yet binding and it is not entirely clear how these goals are to be accomplished.

One of the most promising current solutions to this problem lies in the use of biofuels. These sustainably-sourced combustibles can cut-back total emissions by considerable amounts and are supportable in the medium to long term. Past use of biofuels has been centered around drop-in fuels produced from first-generation feedstock sources largely based on oil, such as biodiesel. However, recent European regulations are trying to move away from oil-based fuels and first generation feedstocks due to Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) concerns. Several studies have outlined alcohols (bio-methanol and bio-ethanol) as well as bio-methane as some of the best-positioned fuels for research and development.

Similar to first generation biofuels, a large concern surrounding these newly proposed fuels relate to the feedstock availability. The challenge with biofuels is therefore creating cost-effective supply chains that are able to meet market demands while still reducing life-cycle emissions.

This paper creates a MILP model under a set of scenarios to understand the best-suited fuels, feedstocks and supply chain paths for the period 2025-2030. Several biomass supply and energy demand conditions are estimated across Europe for the years in question and used to analyze distinct possibilities. It is found that while the supply of these fuels is feasible, a combination of the three is best suited to meet the energy demands. The biggest obstacle to all three fuels are the refinery capacities across Europe, which. It is also discovered that forestry residues represent the most likely candidate for fuel production and to a smaller extent, animal wastes. The production and small scale adoption of these fuels is possible (in terms of supply concerns) however, much is needed in the regulatory aspect to make sure the move towards these fuel options is achieved.