During the design phase of a foundation installation aspects are easily overlooked. When this aspect is overlooked a foundation element risks not reaching its design depth or getting damaged during the installation process. As a result significant delays and/or costs could occur. A driveability study gives insight in the installation aspects of a foundation element. Driveability is the ability of a foundation element to be driven to a designated depth with a
reasonable speed and without exceeding acceptable material stress. In this report will be researched how the probability of refusal of a sheet pile installed by vibro-driving can be predicted by means of a driving speed-depth-curve (vp-z-curve). Having insight in probability of refusal improves risk assessment and decision-making on driving projects. The focus is on sheet pile installation by vibro hammers as these projects are generally executed in large numbers and under similar conditions. Therefore, these project types are very suitable for application of probability theory. Allwave-PDP is used as a basis to create a probabilistic prediction method. Parameters of the pile driving system (pile, hammer and soil) modelled in Allwave-PDP are turned into stochastic parameters in the probabilistic method. Probability of refusal is predicted with a Monte Carlo simulation. Pile and hammer parameters are modelled by deterministic parameters. Variability of soil parameters is caused by soil heterogeneity and transformation variability. The probabilistic method is validated with three well-reported case studies in Woudsend, Den Oever and Rotterdam. Predicted results show agreement with measured results. The model is a proof of concept that shows the potential of applying probability theory to driveability prediction methods. A proof of concept of the modelling (transformation and spatial variability) and the method (extension of Allwave-PDP) is given. Not any existing model is known to incorporate probability theory in driveability prediction methods. The probabilistic method can simply be extended to other pile types or impact hammers. Therefore, this method is promising to predict different pile driving system configurations.