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M.A. van den Berghe
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Current climate policy is not sufficient to reach the Paris Agreement, in which nations agreed that global temperature increase should remain below 2 °C. In this thesis, an ecological-economic model (Dynamically Integrated model for Climate and Economy) is coupled to a social model to investigate the effect of this coupling on global warming. In particular, atmospheric temperature is coupled to public support for climate policy.
In all model simulations, the level of public support eventually rises to full support. The way in which public support evolves towards full support appears to be determinative for high or low global warming in the model. In cases where public support rises quickly, global warming remains within the desired limit of 2 °C. However, in cases where public support levels initially fall and eventually tip to full support, the model shows high global warming. In these cases, bifurcation-induced and rate-induced tipping were identified.
Multiple factors can delay achieving full support for climate policy or climate policy implementation in general. These are a low value of the perceived weight for the costs of climate change ν2, a low social learning rate κ, and a low maximum bound for the change in climate policy Δμmax. A change in one factor can also affect the influence of another factor. An important example is the strength of social norms δ; changes in this variable influence the sensitivity of ν2 and x0.
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In all model simulations, the level of public support eventually rises to full support. The way in which public support evolves towards full support appears to be determinative for high or low global warming in the model. In cases where public support rises quickly, global warming remains within the desired limit of 2 °C. However, in cases where public support levels initially fall and eventually tip to full support, the model shows high global warming. In these cases, bifurcation-induced and rate-induced tipping were identified.
Multiple factors can delay achieving full support for climate policy or climate policy implementation in general. These are a low value of the perceived weight for the costs of climate change ν2, a low social learning rate κ, and a low maximum bound for the change in climate policy Δμmax. A change in one factor can also affect the influence of another factor. An important example is the strength of social norms δ; changes in this variable influence the sensitivity of ν2 and x0.
...
Current climate policy is not sufficient to reach the Paris Agreement, in which nations agreed that global temperature increase should remain below 2 °C. In this thesis, an ecological-economic model (Dynamically Integrated model for Climate and Economy) is coupled to a social model to investigate the effect of this coupling on global warming. In particular, atmospheric temperature is coupled to public support for climate policy.
In all model simulations, the level of public support eventually rises to full support. The way in which public support evolves towards full support appears to be determinative for high or low global warming in the model. In cases where public support rises quickly, global warming remains within the desired limit of 2 °C. However, in cases where public support levels initially fall and eventually tip to full support, the model shows high global warming. In these cases, bifurcation-induced and rate-induced tipping were identified.
Multiple factors can delay achieving full support for climate policy or climate policy implementation in general. These are a low value of the perceived weight for the costs of climate change ν2, a low social learning rate κ, and a low maximum bound for the change in climate policy Δμmax. A change in one factor can also affect the influence of another factor. An important example is the strength of social norms δ; changes in this variable influence the sensitivity of ν2 and x0.
In all model simulations, the level of public support eventually rises to full support. The way in which public support evolves towards full support appears to be determinative for high or low global warming in the model. In cases where public support rises quickly, global warming remains within the desired limit of 2 °C. However, in cases where public support levels initially fall and eventually tip to full support, the model shows high global warming. In these cases, bifurcation-induced and rate-induced tipping were identified.
Multiple factors can delay achieving full support for climate policy or climate policy implementation in general. These are a low value of the perceived weight for the costs of climate change ν2, a low social learning rate κ, and a low maximum bound for the change in climate policy Δμmax. A change in one factor can also affect the influence of another factor. An important example is the strength of social norms δ; changes in this variable influence the sensitivity of ν2 and x0.
Bachelor thesis
(2023)
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M.A. van den Berghe, C.R. Kleijn, B.J. Meulenbroek, D. Lathouwers, S.K.J. Aerts
Geothermal energy can be promising to help the energy transition. Warm water is pumped up from a geothermal well and after it is cooled down, the cold water is reinjected into the hot aquifer underground. The temperature change could cause chemical balances to be disturbed and result in precipitation on the porous medium of the aquifer. This process of clogging of an aquifer is not desirable since it re- duces the efficiency of the production of warm water. This research is a stepping stone for modelling these reactions and clogging of the aquifer. The reactions rates depend on the temperature and the concentration of the reactants in the aquifer. For this reason the temperature distribution of the aquifer was numerically derived with finite difference methods. The velocity field is important for modelling both the temperature and the concentrations. Therefore the pressure and velocity field were modelled with use of mass conservation and the Darcy model. The models were solved numerically with finite difference methods and some results were compared to the analytical solution of the model. It was concluded that the numerical model for the velocity field is accurate when compared to analytical solu- tions of the model equations. In the model used, an increase in porosity resulted in a delay of cooling the aquifer. This is because there was no relation between porosity and permeability implemented in the model. A lower flow rate in the aquifer delays the cooling of the aquifer as well. For further research it is recommended to implement the chemical reactions into the model and use this model to look into how to prevent the clogging in the aquifer.
...
Geothermal energy can be promising to help the energy transition. Warm water is pumped up from a geothermal well and after it is cooled down, the cold water is reinjected into the hot aquifer underground. The temperature change could cause chemical balances to be disturbed and result in precipitation on the porous medium of the aquifer. This process of clogging of an aquifer is not desirable since it re- duces the efficiency of the production of warm water. This research is a stepping stone for modelling these reactions and clogging of the aquifer. The reactions rates depend on the temperature and the concentration of the reactants in the aquifer. For this reason the temperature distribution of the aquifer was numerically derived with finite difference methods. The velocity field is important for modelling both the temperature and the concentrations. Therefore the pressure and velocity field were modelled with use of mass conservation and the Darcy model. The models were solved numerically with finite difference methods and some results were compared to the analytical solution of the model. It was concluded that the numerical model for the velocity field is accurate when compared to analytical solu- tions of the model equations. In the model used, an increase in porosity resulted in a delay of cooling the aquifer. This is because there was no relation between porosity and permeability implemented in the model. A lower flow rate in the aquifer delays the cooling of the aquifer as well. For further research it is recommended to implement the chemical reactions into the model and use this model to look into how to prevent the clogging in the aquifer.