Peripheral regions in Europe face persistent demographic and economic challenges. Population decline, ageing, and limited job opportunities reduce the vitality of these regions, while shrinking public transport services further undermine accessibility and quality of life. In this context, public transport interventions, such as the development of new railways, are often presented as a strategic solution to enhance regional connectivity, improve economic prospects, and maintain the attractiveness of peripheral areas. Railways are seen not only as technical infrastructure but as catalysts for broader socio-economic renewal.

Yet, despite these high expectations, it remains difficult to determine whether such projects truly achieve their intended effects. A complication is the limited availability of ex-post evaluations. Large-scale infrastructure projects are typically judged by pre-opening forecasts, such as ridership projections or symbolic milestones, rather than by systematic ex-post, long-term analyses of social, economic, and spatial outcomes. Existing studies in Europe are relatively scarce. This lack of robust empirical evidence complicates the ability of policymakers to draw lessons for future projects such as the Lelylijn or the Nedersaksenlijn.

This research investigates whether public transport investments enhance the attractiveness of peripheral regions. Focusing on the Hanzelijn as a case study, it examines contextual conditions and mechanisms that shape regional development. The aim is to develop a conceptual model and identify the conditions under which such interventions succeed or fail, offering insights for policymakers and planners......