Pv
P.C.H. van Adrichem
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This thesis investigates whether current Dutch design guidelines adequately account for horizontal ice loads on hydraulic structures under an extreme Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse scenario. Climate model results representing extreme winter conditions were used as input for a river ice model in River1D of the representative section of the Maas between Belfeld and Sambeek. Simulations showed that severe river ice conditions, including moving frazil ice, anchor ice, ice jams, and solid ice cover, could develop under both closed and removed weir situations.
The resulting ice conditions were used to evaluate Dutch design guidelines and compare them with Canadian, Russian and European standards. While Dutch guidelines account for thermal expansion and ice accumulation loads, they do not explicitly consider ice collision loads, despite the latter representing the most critical loading mechanism. Computed expected ice loads for thermal expansion and ice accumulation were inconsistent with existing guideline values. Ice jam loads were found to be relatively small and collision loads could not be determined due to the selected module in the river ice modelling program River1D.
The study concludes that Dutch design guidelines do not comprehensively address horizontal ice loading under an extreme AMOC collapse scenario, particularly regarding significant ice collision loads comparable in magnitude to ship collisions. Further research is recommended to model the entire Maas, assess flood risks associated with ice jams, and improve the understanding of relations between ice strength, ice thickness and width of structure, as well as investigate the possibility of standardisation of ice strength used in guidelines. ...
The resulting ice conditions were used to evaluate Dutch design guidelines and compare them with Canadian, Russian and European standards. While Dutch guidelines account for thermal expansion and ice accumulation loads, they do not explicitly consider ice collision loads, despite the latter representing the most critical loading mechanism. Computed expected ice loads for thermal expansion and ice accumulation were inconsistent with existing guideline values. Ice jam loads were found to be relatively small and collision loads could not be determined due to the selected module in the river ice modelling program River1D.
The study concludes that Dutch design guidelines do not comprehensively address horizontal ice loading under an extreme AMOC collapse scenario, particularly regarding significant ice collision loads comparable in magnitude to ship collisions. Further research is recommended to model the entire Maas, assess flood risks associated with ice jams, and improve the understanding of relations between ice strength, ice thickness and width of structure, as well as investigate the possibility of standardisation of ice strength used in guidelines. ...
This thesis investigates whether current Dutch design guidelines adequately account for horizontal ice loads on hydraulic structures under an extreme Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse scenario. Climate model results representing extreme winter conditions were used as input for a river ice model in River1D of the representative section of the Maas between Belfeld and Sambeek. Simulations showed that severe river ice conditions, including moving frazil ice, anchor ice, ice jams, and solid ice cover, could develop under both closed and removed weir situations.
The resulting ice conditions were used to evaluate Dutch design guidelines and compare them with Canadian, Russian and European standards. While Dutch guidelines account for thermal expansion and ice accumulation loads, they do not explicitly consider ice collision loads, despite the latter representing the most critical loading mechanism. Computed expected ice loads for thermal expansion and ice accumulation were inconsistent with existing guideline values. Ice jam loads were found to be relatively small and collision loads could not be determined due to the selected module in the river ice modelling program River1D.
The study concludes that Dutch design guidelines do not comprehensively address horizontal ice loading under an extreme AMOC collapse scenario, particularly regarding significant ice collision loads comparable in magnitude to ship collisions. Further research is recommended to model the entire Maas, assess flood risks associated with ice jams, and improve the understanding of relations between ice strength, ice thickness and width of structure, as well as investigate the possibility of standardisation of ice strength used in guidelines.
The resulting ice conditions were used to evaluate Dutch design guidelines and compare them with Canadian, Russian and European standards. While Dutch guidelines account for thermal expansion and ice accumulation loads, they do not explicitly consider ice collision loads, despite the latter representing the most critical loading mechanism. Computed expected ice loads for thermal expansion and ice accumulation were inconsistent with existing guideline values. Ice jam loads were found to be relatively small and collision loads could not be determined due to the selected module in the river ice modelling program River1D.
The study concludes that Dutch design guidelines do not comprehensively address horizontal ice loading under an extreme AMOC collapse scenario, particularly regarding significant ice collision loads comparable in magnitude to ship collisions. Further research is recommended to model the entire Maas, assess flood risks associated with ice jams, and improve the understanding of relations between ice strength, ice thickness and width of structure, as well as investigate the possibility of standardisation of ice strength used in guidelines.
Conference paper
(2026)
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Pauline van Adrichem, Hayo Hendrikse, Astrid Blom, Siemen Algra, Arjen van den Dalfsen
Due to the gradual decrease in flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and given the geographical position, a change in climate in the Netherlands is expected (Van den Dool, 2025) & (Carrington, Damian, 2025). The AMOC transports warm ocean water to Northern Europe leading to a temperate maritime climate in the Netherlands. A gradually decreasing or complete collapse of the AMOC certainly results in a colder Northern Europe. Resulting lower air and surface temperatures, will impact ice formation on rivers, such as the Maas. Other claims of consequences in case of an AMOC collapse are: less precipitation in Europe, and faster sea level rise in the Atlantic Ocean (Van den Dool, 2025).
...
Due to the gradual decrease in flow of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and given the geographical position, a change in climate in the Netherlands is expected (Van den Dool, 2025) & (Carrington, Damian, 2025). The AMOC transports warm ocean water to Northern Europe leading to a temperate maritime climate in the Netherlands. A gradually decreasing or complete collapse of the AMOC certainly results in a colder Northern Europe. Resulting lower air and surface temperatures, will impact ice formation on rivers, such as the Maas. Other claims of consequences in case of an AMOC collapse are: less precipitation in Europe, and faster sea level rise in the Atlantic Ocean (Van den Dool, 2025).