Traditional lighting is focused on the prevention of hardware failures. With the trend towards controlled and connected systems, other components will start playing an equal role in the reliability of it. Here reliability needs to be replaced by availability and other modeling approaches are to be considered. System prognostics and health management is the next step to service the connected complex systems in the most effective way possible. In this chapter, we will highlight the next frontiers that will need to be taken in order to move the traditional lighting catastrophic failure thinking into a thinking more towards new ways how system (degraded) functions can fail or be compromised. Results in the failure mode of lumen maintenance and its uncertainty are presented. An industrial use case is presented demonstrating how smart lighting will eventually be able to forecast maintenance schedules more efficiently.@en