Based on the Paris Climate Agreement, the Dutch government has committed itself to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Therefore the outlook of the Dutch energy system will significantly change. Current projections indicate that electricity demand in the Netherlands will be appr
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Based on the Paris Climate Agreement, the Dutch government has committed itself to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Therefore the outlook of the Dutch energy system will significantly change. Current projections indicate that electricity demand in the Netherlands will be approximately three times higher in 2050. Due to its geographical position, the Netherlands is expected to rely more on offshore wind than most of the other European countries. However, the growing dependence on renewable energy sources also causes problems during periods of darkness and calm winds. Such events are known as Dunkelflaute. This study examines the impact of Dunkelflaute on the Dutch energy system.The ratio between the renewable energy sources is based on installed capacity. This definition has been chosen to ensure feasibility, comparability, and effectiveness within the available time and resources of this study. This study wil use the open model dataset of the European energysystem, PyPSA-eur. Using PyPSA-Eur, the number of Dunkelflaute events was assessed, based on the definition defined in this study and comparable research, for the years 2011 to 2020. Based on the number of events per year, the most representative average year and the most extreme, Dunkelflaute, year were identified. This evaluation shows that the most average year is 2017 and 2014 represents the Dunkelflaute year. Eight different scenarios were developed based on the expected outlook of the Dutch energsystem in 2050. All eight scenarios were constructed with the same elektricity load, but with varying constraints. The installed capacity of RES was selected according to the minimum and maximum expectations for 2050, hereafter the scenarios were divided by the degree of expected self-sufficiency of the Netherlands in 2050. Finally, each scenario was evaluated under both the minimum and maximum expected levels of offshore interconnection capacity. Subsequently, the behaviour of the energy system during Dunkelflaute periods was analysed for each scenario. Based on this, the instruments used to mitigate Dunkelflautes were identified, as well as the influence of installed capacity, self-sufficiency, and interconnections. For the Netherlands the analysis shows that Dunkelflautes are primarily mitigated through battery dischargers and electricity imports. In the whole network, Dunkelflaute periods are additionally mitigated by hydrogen turbines and hydropower. For the Netherlands, the additional costs can be expressed in terms of the extra battery capacity required, as the electricity system does not exhibit substantial cost differences between 2014 and 2017. In total, an additional 36 GW of battery capacity is required in 2014 on average, corresponding to an estimated annual cost of 281 million euros.Based on the results, it can be concluded that electricity imports play a crucial role during Dunkelflaute periods and, in absolute terms, contribute more than battery dischargers, which are also relatively costly. The offshore DC links are the most important component for mitigating Dunkelflaute in most scenar- ios. The effect of doubling interconnection capacity on total system costs cannot be clearly determined; further research into the influence of offshore links and their impact on overall system costs would be a valuable direction for future work.