The decarbonisation of Dutch non-residential service buildings is vital for achieving national climate goals. Yet current policies have primarily focused on new constructions, leaving the existing building stock—responsible for a significant share of emissions—underregulated. Financial, organisational, and behavioural barriers delay or prevent timely investments in sustainable heating. Since major heating system replacements typically occur only once or twice before 2050, failure to act during these moments risks locking in carbon-intensive technologies for decades. Targeted policy measures are therefore needed to steer building owners toward low-carbon alternatives at these critical decision points.

This study investigates how selected policy interventions can accelerate CO₂ emission reductions in the Dutch non-residential service sector, assessed through their effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and distributional impacts. The CEKER techno-economic model, developed by CE Delft and originally tailored to the residential sector, was adapted to reflect the heterogeneity of the non-residential building stock in terms of function, size, and energy demand. The model simulates rational, cost-minimising investment decisions made at natural heating system replacement moments. Twelve policy scenarios were analysed, including increases in the energy tax on natural gas, mandatory energy label standards, and a ban on gas-based heating systems, both as stand-alone measures and in combined scenarios. All scenarios were tested across three electricity price futures to assess policy robustness.

Results show that combined interventions—particularly higher gas taxes paired with mandatory insulation standards—achieve the highest CO₂ reductions (up to 1.2 Mt). Economic measures alone are more cost-effective per tonne of CO₂, but less effective overall. Smaller buildings (≤500 m²) and assembly buildings exhibit high abatement potential but face relatively high retrofit costs.

Policy recommendations include gradually increasing the energy tax on natural gas, mandating a minimum energy label (e.g., Label D by 2030–2035), and offering targeted financial support for small buildings (≤500 m²) and assembly buildings. These results represent a techno-economic upper bound, assuming fully rational investment behaviour without non-financial barriers. As such, they provide a benchmark for evaluating the environmental impact, economic efficiency, and fairness of alternative policy strategies.