The uncertainty associated with public transport services can be partially counteracted by developing real-time models to predict downstream service conditions. In this study, a hybrid approach for predicting bus trajectories by integrating multiple predictors is proposed. The prediction model combines schedule, instantaneous and historical data. The contribution of each predictor as well as values of respective parameters is estimated by minimizing the prediction error using a linear regression heuristic. The hybrid method was applied to five bus routes in Stockholm, Sweden, and Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that the hybrid method consistently outperforms the timetable and delay conservation prediction method for different route layouts, passenger demands and operation practices. Model validation confirms model transferability and real-time applicability. Generating more accurate predictions can help service users adjust their travel plans and service providers to deploy proactive management and control strategies to mitigate the negative effects of service disturbances.

Design and operational measures are designed and implemented to improve public transport performance and level-of-service. In the case of urban bus systems, priority, operational and control measures are aimed to elevate bus services to buses with high level of service (BHLS). Even though there is an explosive growth in design and operational measures implementation and growing research interest in investigating their impact on performance indicators, there is lack of a systematic evaluation of their benefits. We present an evaluation framework and a detail sequence of steps for quantifying the impacts of public transport design and operational measures. The effects of service performance on travel times and costs are assessed by accounting for relations between reliability and waiting times, crowding and perceived travel times, and vehicle scheduling and operational costs. The evaluation integrates the implications of reliability on generalized passenger travel costs and operational costs. We deploy the proposed evaluation framework to a field experiment in Stockholm where a series of measures were implemented on the busiest bus line. The results suggest that the total passenger and operator benefits amount to 36.8 million Swedish crowns on an annual basis. The overall assessment of the impacts of design and operational measures enables the comparison of different implementations, assess their effectiveness, prioritize alternative measures and provide a sound basis for motivating investments.