Over the last few decades, reliability analysis has attracted significant interest due to its importance in risk and asset integrity management. Meanwhile, Bayesian inference has proven its advantages over other statistical tools, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and least square estimation (LSE), in estimating the parameters characterizing failure modelling. Indeed, Bayesian inference can incorporate prior beliefs and information into the analysis, which could partially overcome the lack of data. Accordingly, this paper aims to provide a closed-mathematical representation of Bayesian analysis for reliability assessment of industrial components while investigating the effect of the prior choice on future failures predictions. To this end, hierarchical Bayesian modelling (HBM) was tested on three samples with distinct sizes, while five different prior distributions were considered. Moreover, a beta-binomial distribution was adopted to represent the failure behavior of the considered device. The results show that choosing strong informative priors leads to distinct predictions, even if a larger sample size is considered. The outcome of this research could help maintenance engineers and asset managers in integrating their prior beliefs into the reliability estimation process.@en

During the last decades, the optimization of the maintenance plan in process plants has lured the attention of many researchers due to its vital role in assuring the safety of operations. Within the process of scheduling maintenance activities, one of the most significant challenges is estimating the reliability of the involved systems, especially in case of data scarcity. Overestimating the average time between two consecutive failures of an individual component could compromise safety, while an underestimate leads to an increase of operational costs. Thus, a reliable tool able to determine the parameters of failure modelling with high accuracy when few data are available would be welcome. For this purpose, this paper aims at comparing the implementation of three practical estimation frameworks in case of sparse data to point out the most efficient approach. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling (HBM), maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and least square estimation (LSE) are applied on data generated by a simulated stochastic process of a natural gas regulating and metering station (NGRMS), which was adopted as a case of study. The results identify the Bayesian methodology as the most accurate for predicting the failure rate of the considered devices, especially for the equipment characterized by less data available. The outcomes of this research will assist maintenance engineers and asset managers in choosing the optimal approach to conduct reliability analysis either when sufficient data or limited data are observed.@en

Thanks to the advances in the Internet of Things (IoT), Condition-based Maintenance (CBM) has progressively become one of the most renowned strategies to mitigate the risk arising from failures. Within any CBM framework, non-linear correlation among data and variability of condition monitoring data sources are among the main reasons that lead to a complex estimation of Reliability Indicators (RIs). Indeed, most classic approaches fail to fully consider these aspects. This work presents a novel methodology that employs Accelerated Life Testing (ALT) as multiple sources of data to define the impact of relevant PVs on RIs, and subsequently, plan maintenance actions through an online reliability estimation. For this purpose, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) is exploited to model the relationship between PVs and an RI, while a Hierarchical Bayesian Regression (HBR) is implemented to estimate the parameters of the GLM. The HBR can deal with the aforementioned uncertainties, allowing to get a better explanation of the correlation of PVs. We considered a numerical example that exploits five distinct operating conditions for ALT as a case study. The developed methodology provides asset managers a solid tool to estimate online reliability and plan maintenance actions as soon as a given condition is reached.@en

Purpose: Nature-based tourism (NBT) blossoming requires sound monitoring models to maximize its potential in the tourism industry. Cooperation of different segments from nature to economy will lead to a sustainable NBT. Therefore, the qualitative and quantitative relation between these subdivisions has to be investigated. Design/methodology/approach: This paper proposes an advanced NBT model for the design of an optimum tourism system. To this end, Bayesian network (BN) has been implemented to characterize the impact of each subsector on NBT. Findings: The outcomes of this study can help the tourism managers, policymakers and related organizations to find the optimum approach to achieve a continuous improvement in the system. To demonstrate the applicability of the methodology, two cases of observations are considered. Originality/value: The originality of the work is well demonstrated in the literature review of the paper.@en

Over the next few years, digitalization and automation are expected to be key drivers for maritime transport innovation to be key drivers for maritime transportation innovation. This revolutionary shift in the shipping industry will heavily impact the reliability of the machinery which is intended to be operated remotely with minimum support from humans. Despite a large amount of research into autonomous navigation and control systems in maritime transportation, the evaluation of unattended engine rooms has received very little attention. For autonomous vessels to be effective during their unmanned mission, it is essential for the engine room understand its health condition and self-manage performance. The unattended machinery plant (UMP) should be resilient enough to have the ability to survive and recover from unexpected perturbations, disruptions, and operational degradations. Otherwise, the system may require unplanned maintenance or the operation will stop. Therefore, the UMP must continue its operation without human intervention and safely return the ship to port. This paper aims to develop a machine learning-based model to predict an UMP's performance and estimate how long the engine room can operate without human assistance. A Random Process Tree is used to model failures in the unattended components, while a Hierarchical Bayesian Inference is adopted to facilitate the prediction of unknown parameters in the process. A probabilistic Bayesian Network developed and evaluated the dependent relationship between active and standby components to assess the effect of redundant units in the performance of unattended machinery. The present framework will provide helpful additional information to evaluate the associate uncertainties and predict the untoward events that put the engine room at risk. The results highlight the model's ability to predict the UMP's trusted operation period and evaluate an unattended engine room's resilience. A real case study of a merchant vessel used for short sea shipping in European waters is considered to demonstrate the model's application.@en

Purpose: Destinations to be able to compete with each other need to equip themselves with as many competitive advantages as possible. Tourists' loyalty to a destination is considered as a prominent competitive tool for destinations. Tourists' loyalty manifests itself in recommendation of the destination to others, repeat visit of the destination and willingness to revisit the destination. Although a plethora of studies have tried to define models to show the relation between loyalty and the antecedent factors leading up to it, few of them have tried to integrate these models with mathematical approaches for better understanding of loyalty behavior. The purpose of this paper is to integrate a tourist destination model with Bayesian Network in order to predict the behaviour of destination loyalty and its antecedent factors. Design/methodology/approach: This paper has developed a probability model by the integration of a destination loyalty model with a Bayesian network (BN) which enables to predict and analyze the behavior of loyalty and its influential factors. To demonstrate the application of this framework, Tehran, the capital of Iran, was chosen as a destination case study. Findings: The outcome of this research will assist in identifying the weak key points in the tourist destination area for giving insights to the marketers, businesses and policy makers for making better decisions related to destination loyalty. In the analysis process, the most influential factors were recognized as the travel environment image, natural/historical attractions and, with a lower degree, infrastructure image which help the decision maker to detect and reinforce the weak factors and put more effort in focusing on improving the necessary parts rather than the irrelevant parts. Originality/value: The research identified all critical factors that have the most influence on destination loyalty while driving the associate uncertainty which is significant for the tourism industry. This resulted in better decision-making which is used to identify the impact of tourism destination loyalty.@en

Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships have received a significant amount of attention in recent projects. They promise a reduction in marine accidents and mitigation of human errors. Most of the ongoing research effort is directed toward autonomous navigation and cybersecurity. However, the importance of a machinery plant in the engine room that can operate reliably without human attendance is hardly investigated. To prevent failures in such systems and extend the interval between required human interventions, it is essential to improve their reliability. This paper aims to present a systematic approach to evaluate the reliability of an autonomous system under the influence of uncertain disruptions and to predict failure rates of unattended machinery plants. A Multinomial Process Tree is used to model failures in the main failure-sensitive components. Hierarchical Bayesian Inference is adopted to facilitate the prediction of frequencies of disruptive events and estimate the entire system's failure rate. The outcome of this research enables design strategies to improve the reliability of autonomous ships and prevent Fatal Technical Failure during the operation. This allows assessing whether a given machinery plant is sufficiently reliable to be used on unmanned ships. A case study is considered to demonstrate the application of the presented method.@en

Failure modelling and reliability assessment of repairable systems has been receiving a great deal of attention due to its pivotal role in risk and safety management of process industries. Meanwhile, the level of uncertainty that comes with characterizing the parameters of reliability models require a sound parameter estimator tool. For the purpose of comparison and cross-verification, this paper aims at identifying the most efficient and minimal variance parameter estimator. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling (HBM) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approaches are applied to investigate the effect of utilizing observed data on inter-arrival failure time modelling. A case study of Natural Gas Regulating and Metering Stations in Italy has been considered to illustrate the application of proposed framework. The results highlight that relaxing the renewal process assumption and taking the time dependency of the observed data into account will result in more precise failure models. The outcomes of this study can help asset managers to find the optimum approach to reliability assessment of repairable systems.@en

Failure modelling and reliability assessment of repairable systems has been receiving a great deal of attention due to its pivotal role in risk and safety management of process industries. Meanwhile, the level of uncertainty that comes with characterizing the parameters of reliability models require a sound parameter estimator tool. For the purpose of comparison and cross-verification, this paper aims at identifying the most efficient and minimal variance parameter estimator. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling (HBM) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approaches are applied to investigate the effect of utilizing observed data on inter-arrival failure time modelling. A case study of Natural Gas Regulating and Metering Stations in Italy has been considered to illustrate the application of proposed framework. The results highlight that relaxing the renewal process assumption and taking the time dependency of the observed data into account will result in more precise failure models. The outcomes of this study can help asset managers to find the optimum approach to reliability assessment of repairable systems.@en

Analyzing the reliability of autonomous ships has recently attracted attention mainly due to epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) integrated with automatic operations in the maritime sector. The advent of new random failures with unrecognized failure patterns in autonomous ship operations requires a comprehensive reliability assessment specifically aiming at estimating the time in which the ship can be trusted to be left unattended. While the reliability concept is touched upon well through the literature, the operational trustworthiness needs more elaboration to be established for system safety, especially within the maritime sector. Accordingly, in this paper, a probabilistic approach has been established to estimate the trusted operational time of the ship machinery system through different autonomy degrees. The uncertainty associated with ship operation has been quantified using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo simulation from likelihood function in Bayesian inference. To verify the developed framework, a practical example of a machinery plant used in typical short sea merchant ships is taken into account. This study can be exploited by asset managers to estimate the time in which the ship can be left unattended. Keywords: reliability estimation, Bayesian inference, autonomous ship, uncertainty.@en