This study investigates the trade-offs of energy renovations in Amsterdam’s social housing stock from 2025 to 2050, evaluating three renovation prioritisation schemes - BUR (energy-burden focused), IMP (emissions-focused), and EFF (cost-efficient) - across varying deep-renovation quota pathways - LOW (15% deep renovations and 85% limited renovations), MID (50% deep renovations and 50% limited renovations), NPA (85% deep renovations and 15% limited renovations). Using a material-flow and energy-renovation model, the impacts on energy savings, household energy burden, material inflows and outflows, operational and embodied carbon emissions, and renovation costs are quantified.

Results reveal that prioritisation schemes significantly shape renovation outcomes. BUR prioritises foundational envelope improvements, effectively reducing household energy burden and costs, especially for vulnerable tenants. IMP maximises operational CO₂ reductions through renewable heating system upgrades but can increase financial burdens and leave poorly insulated units behind. EFF balances cost and emission performance, gradually shifting focus toward heating system upgrades with higher renovation quotas.

Deep renovations increase material flows and embodied emissions, while envelope components dominate resource use. Higher renovation quotas amplify emission saving and energy costs outcomes, highlighting the importance of burden-sensitive implementation.

Policy implications indicate that achieving Amsterdam’s climate and energy goals requires integrating technical, economic, and social objectives. Envelope-first programmes, staged implementation, andfinancial safeguards are fundamental to prevent inequitable outcomes. From a scientific perspective, future research should adopt full life-cycle assessments, multi-cycle renovation modelling, and behavioural considerations to better capture real-world dynamics.

Overall, this study demonstrates that effective renovation strategies require a careful balance of decarbonisation, cost-efficiency, material use, and equity to ensure a sustainable and just transition of the social housing stock where no household is left behind.