A large part of the Dutch plastic waste is currently incinerated, with a high amount of greenhouse gas emissions as a consequence. If recycling is done efficiently, it could provide environmental benefit over energy recovery through incineration, especially in a low carbon economy where renewable energy generation becomes the new status quo. This study focusses on one of the most used types of plastic for packaging: flexible film. The aim of the research is estimating the degree of circularity in the flexible film supply chain from a systems perspective. Moreover, the focus is on discovering how the current techno-institutional regime involving the flexible film supply chain can be protected from techno-institutional lock-in: a situation where innovation towards a circular supply chain is opposed through reinforcing socio-economic, institutional and technical structures. To explore this, a mixed method approach is applied, covering several qualitative and quantitative research methods. First, the current flexible film supply chain is examined by means of desk research. This analysis indicates that it is economically more advantageous to incinerate than to recycle flexible films under current conditions. A material flow analysis is performed to uncover the current flexible film material flows in the Netherlands. It shows that the ratio between recycled and reapplied flexible film and the amount incinerated is different than expected. A much higher proportion seems to currently be incinerated than suggested by national statistics. Furthermore, the material flow analysis shows that much of the recycled content supply remains unused, as the demand for recycled flexible films is currently higher than demand. The main supply chain actors are interviewed for their perspective on the influential factors for innovation for circularity in the supply chain. The interviews are analysed by means of comparative cognitive mapping. Results showed that the actors perceived high dependency on governmental institutions for accelerating innovation, more so than interdependency within the supply chain. Furthermore, the demand for recycled flexible films seems to be one of the most crucial factors, with recycled flexible film quality as a close second. Aggregated institutional factors appear to have the most influence on the demand for recycled flexible films, compared to socio-economic and technical factors. The construction of the current techno-institutional regime visualizes the crucial role of the institutional system in initiating and accelerating circular innovation through governmental (policy) triggers. Desk research is done to discover trends for and relationships between the relevant factors mentioned by the supply chain actors. Subsequently, the flexible film supply chain and the relevant influential factors are simulated for different scenarios towards 2025 by means of dynamic modelling. The results show that only in the high scenario, demand exceeds supply, resulting in a positive stimulus for achieving more circularity within the supply chain. Moreover, in the high scenario, the reapplied recycled content increases significantly, which shows a positive development on the ratio between incinerated and reapplied recycled content. The same trend is visible in the low scenario, but to a much lower degree. Moreover, only the high scenarios display an eventual decrease in the accumulating stockpile of unused flexible film supply. Based on the results of the different methods, it can be concluded that the current flexible film supply chain shows less circularity than Dutch national reports suggest with their values for recycled content. Nonetheless, some positive trends are visible, that push the supply chain towards circularity. In the short term, institutional factors seem to be most important here, due to their influence on recycled flexible film demand. The government aims to achieve a 30% recycled content, compared to overall annual production, for each type of plastic in 2025. This can only be achieved when the influential factors develop as estimated in the simulated high scenarios, especially in terms of institutional factors. Due to the crucial role of institutional triggers and policy implementation in this context, it is strongly recommended that governmental action is taken for providing a level playing field within the plastic industry. This can, subsequently, break reinforcing technological and socio-economic loops and initiate change within these structures hindering innovation. In this way, the development towards a circular flexible film supply chain can be stimulated and a techno-institutional lock-in is avoided.