The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is highly sensitive to climate forcing, as shown by current observations. Here, we use one of the few coupled ice sheet and ocean-atmosphere general circulation models to examine the coupling between the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB), elevation and dynamical flow. Surface melt is calculated with an energy balance scheme, avoiding the use of empirical melt-temperature relationships (e.g., positive degree days). Despite the course horizontal resolution of the atmospheric model (ECHAM5T31, 3.75 degrees), the model shows reasonable skill in the simulation of the GrIS surface climate and surface melt when compared with a regional model (RACMO2). Our results reveal a growing present-day GrIS in the absence of anthropogenic forcing, in response to reduced insolation forcing since the mid-Holocene. Biases in the simulation of the present-day GrIS are partially attributed to atmospheric sources. We assess the sensitivity of the GrIS to future anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing through three Representative Concentration Pathways and their extensions until A.D. 2300, as well as to climate variability through a small ensemble of historical and RCP/ECP8.5 simulations. The elevation-SMB feedback enhances future GrIS decay with 8-11% (by 2100) and 24-31% (by 2300), depending on the scenario. The small ensemble shows a 2.5 times spread in present-day GrIS decay rates.

The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report concluded that ice sheet flow models, in their current state, were unable to provide accurate forecast for the increase of polar ice sheet discharge and the associated contribution to sea level rise. Since then, the glaciological community has undertaken a huge effort to develop and improve a new generation of ice flow models, and as a result a significant number of new ice sheet models have emerged. Among them is the parallel finite-element model Elmer/Ice, based on the open-source multi-physics code Elmer. It was one of the first full-Stokes models used to make projections for the evolution of the whole Greenland ice sheet for the coming two centuries. Originally developed to solve local ice flow problems of high mechanical and physical complexity, Elmer/Ice has today reached the maturity to solve larger-scale problems, earning the status of an ice sheet model. Here, we summarise almost 10 yr of development performed by different groups. Elmer/Ice solves the full-Stokes equations, for isotropic but also anisotropic ice rheology, resolves the grounding line dynamics as a contact problem, and contains various basal friction laws. Derived fields, like the age of the ice, the strain rate or stress, can also be computed. Elmer/Ice includes two recently proposed inverse methods to infer badly known parameters. Elmer is a highly parallelised code thanks to recent developments and the implementation of a block preconditioned solver for the Stokes system. In this paper, all these components are presented in detail, as well as the numerical performance of the Stokes solver and developments planned for the future.