In order to reach the climate goals agreed on in Paris, immense CO2-reductions is necessary: 55% reduction in 2030 and 95% in 2050. 20% of the total CO2-emissions in the Netherlands comes from heating homes in the built environment. Therefore, it is essential to transition to a sustainable heating system in the built environment. According to the dutch climate agreement of 2019, municipalities are given a leading role in this transition. Municipalities became responsible for setting out the strategy for this transition. They decide for each neighborhood within their jurisdiction how the reduction of heat usage through insulation can be realised. Furthermore, a switch to a sustainable alternative for natural gas needs to be transitioned to. Consisting these two steps, this strategy has to be formalised before the end of 2021 in the `Transitievisie Warmte' (TVW).
However, decentralised coordination of this transition has its limitations: municipalities lack the knowledge to oversee the consequences of their decisions on this complex socio-technical system. Decentralising responsibility means increased demand for knowledge. This lack of knowledge from municipalities lead to decisions made without understanding the consequences of their local decisions on the regional and national electricity and gas networks.
These networks can be limiting for the decision freedom of municipalities and their transition plans to a sustainable heating system. Because they share the same energy networks, municipalities’ choices can limit the options of neighbouring municipalities. The objective of this research is to increase the understanding of the consequences of local decisions in the heat transition. This will be done by creating a model which uses scientific knowledge to support policy making.