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P.G.L. Palazzi

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A Model-Based Evaluation of Roll-out Strategies

Master thesis (2026) - P.G.L. Palazzi, J.A. Annema, L.M. Kamp, Tim van Beek
The accelerating transition toward electric mobility is a key component of global efforts to decarbonise transport systems and achieve long-term climate goals. As electric vehicle (EV) adoption increases, the demand for accessible, reliable, and efficient public charging station infrastructure (PCSI) grows. Public charging networks enable the practical use of EVs while supporting renewable energy integration, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and improving equitable access to sustainable transport.

In the Netherlands, early policy support and public–private cooperation have resulted in one of the most advanced EV charging ecosystems worldwide. However, as the market matures, local authorities face increasingly complex decisions regarding how to plan and manage charging infrastructure. PCSI deployment involves trade-offs between accessibility, economic viability, and system efficiency, while stakeholders operate under different governance models and local conditions. Despite the availability of planning tools and growing experience, uncertainty remains about how different roll-out strategies perform across diverse urban contexts.

This research evaluates how different PCSI roll-out strategies perform across varying urban-infrastructural contexts in the Netherlands. The objective is not to identify a single optimal strategy but to provide empirical insight into how strategy effectiveness depends on local conditions. The central research question is:

How do different roll-out strategies for public EV charging station infrastructure perform across varying urban-infrastructural profiles, as measured by key performance indicators?

To address this question, the study combines spatial, socio-economic, and operational data in a quantitative multiple-case study framework. Local authorities are first classified into urban profiles using a two-step clustering method based on neighbourhood-level data from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), including income, address density, and land area. Next, real-world roll-out strategies are identified from policy documents and categorised according to governance model (concession-based or open market) and planning style (reactive, strategic, or data-driven). Infrastructure performance is then evaluated using three key indicators derived from the NDW LINDA dataset: charging station utilisation rate, energy throughput, and number of unique users. These indicators are combined into a composite performance index and statistically analysed using ANOVA and Tukey tests.

The results show that the effectiveness of roll-out strategies varies significantly across urban-infrastructural contexts. Data-driven and strategic planning approaches consistently outperform purely reactive request-based models in terms of utilisation and delivered energy. In dense urban environments, open-market governance models perform competitively due to increased innovation and network expansion by multiple charging point operators. In suburban and rural contexts, concession-based models provide greater stability and more equitable spatial coverage through coordinated planning.

Overall, the findings demonstrate that there is no universally optimal roll-out strategy. Instead, infrastructure performance depends on the alignment between governance structure, planning approach, and the spatial and socio-economic characteristics of local authorities. These results provide empirical evidence to support more context-sensitive planning of public EV charging infrastructure and contribute to improved decision-making for policymakers and infrastructure operators. ...