OBJECTIVE: The disconnectivity hypothesis postulates that partial loss of connecting white matter fibers between brain regions contributes to the development of dementia. Using diffusion MRI to quantify global and tract-specific white matter microstructural integrity, we tested this hypothesis in a longitudinal population-based study. METHODS: Global and tract-specific fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) were obtained in 4,415 people without dementia (mean age 63.9 years, 55.0% women) from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study with brain MRI between 2005 and 2011. We modeled the association of these diffusion measures with risk of dementia (follow-up until 2016) and with changes on repeated cognitive assessment after on average 5.4 years, adjusting for age, sex, education, macrostructural MRI markers, depressive symptoms, cardiovascular risk factors, and APOE genotype. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 6.8 years, 101 participants had incident dementia, of whom 83 had clinical Alzheimer disease (AD). Lower global values of FA and higher values of MD were associated with an increased risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval (CI)] per SD increase for MD 1.79 [1.44-2.23] and FA 0.65 [0.52-0.80]). Similarly, lower global values of FA and higher values of MD related to more cognitive decline in people without dementia (difference in global cognition per SD increase in MD [95% CI] was -0.04 [-0.07 to -0.01]). Associations were most profound in the projection, association, and limbic system tracts. CONCLUSIONS: Structural disconnectivity is associated with an increased risk of dementia and more pronounced cognitive decline in the general population.

Hippocampal volume and shape are known magnetic resonance imaging biomarkers of neurodegeneration. Recently, hippocampal texture has been shown to improve prediction of dementia in patients with mild cognitive impairment, but it is unknown whether texture adds prognostic information beyond volume and shape and whether the predictive value extends to cognitively healthy individuals. Using 510 subjects from the Rotterdam Study, a prospective, population-based cohort study, we investigated if hippocampal volume, shape, texture, and their combination were predictive of dementia and determined how predictive performance varied with time to diagnosis and presence of early clinical symptoms of dementia. All features showed significant predictive performance with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.700 for texture alone to 0.788 for the combination of volume and texture. Although predictive performance extended to those without objective cognitive complaints or mild cognitive impairment, performance decreased with increasing follow-up time. We conclude that a combination of multiple hippocampal features on magnetic resonance imaging performs better in predicting dementia in the general population than any feature by itself.

Accumulating evidence suggests that genetic variants in the SORL1 gene are associated with Alzheimer disease (AD), but a strategy to identify which variants are pathogenic is lacking. In a discovery sample of 115 SORL1 variants detected in 1908 Dutch AD cases and controls, we identified the variant characteristics associated with SORL1 variant pathogenicity. Findings were replicated in an independent sample of 103 SORL1 variants detected in 3193 AD cases and controls. In a combined sample of the discovery and replication samples, comprising 181 unique SORL1 variants, we developed a strategy to classify SORL1 variants into five subtypes ranging from pathogenic to benign. We tested this pathogenicity screen in SORL1 variants reported in two independent published studies. SORL1 variant pathogenicity is defined by the Combined Annotation Dependent Depletion (CADD) score and the minor allele frequency (MAF) reported by the Exome Aggregation Consortium (ExAC) database. Variants predicted strongly damaging (CADD score >30), which are extremely rare (ExAC-MAF <1 × 10 '5) increased AD risk by 12-fold (95% CI 4.2-34.3; P=5 × 10 '9). Protein-truncating SORL1 mutations were all unknown to ExAC and occurred exclusively in AD cases. More common SORL1 variants (ExAC-MAF≥1 × 10 '5) were not associated with increased AD risk, even when predicted strongly damaging. Findings were independent of gender and the APOE-I 4 allele. High-risk SORL1 variants were observed in a substantial proportion of the AD cases analyzed (2%). Based on their effect size, we propose to consider high-risk SORL1 variants next to variants in APOE, PSEN1, PSEN2 and APP for personalized risk assessments in clinical practice.