The inherent luminous characteristics and stability of LED packages during the operation period are highly dependent on their junction temperatures and driving currents. In this paper, the luminous flux of LED packages operated under a wide range of driving currents and junction temperatures are investigated to develop a luminous flux response surface model. The coefficients of the proposed model are further extracted to compare the luminous efficacy decay mechanisms of LED packages with different packaging structures. Furthermore, a spectral power distribution (SPD) method modeled by the Gaussian function is proposed to analyze the long-term degradation mechanisms of all selected LED packages. The results of this study show that: (1) The luminous flux of phosphor converted white LED decreases to accompany with the increase of junction temperature, while that of bare blue LED die keeps relatively stable; (2) The proposed general luminous flux response surface model can be used to predict the luminous flux of LEDs with different packaging technologies accurately, and it can be known from the proposed model that the influences of driving current and temperature on LED chip and phosphor vary with different packaging structures; and (3) The driving current and temperature dependent sensitivities and degradation mechanisms of LED packages can be investigated by using both the luminous flux response surface model and the spectral power distribution method.@en